Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Everlys Girl can rebound with a clean start
Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 2:20 p.m. (ET)
To a T (#6) figures to go off at a short price in this $20k claimer as she looks to make it two wins in a row. She had been campaigned primarily in tougher allowance and higher priced claiming races by Linda Rice, but the drop in class back down to this $20k level seemed to suit her last time. She had also been victorious when she made the same drop at Saratoga last summer for different connections. Now she’s making her first start off the claim for Rob Atras, whose barn has definitely been heating up lately at Aqueduct. However, Atras hasn’t been successful off the claim recently. The barn is just 4 for 47 (9%, $0.44 ROI) first off the claim at NYRA over the past year. Perhaps this horse will improve for the new barn, but she’s not exactly a cinch in here if she merely repeats her last effort.
There are a pair of coupled entries in this race, and I’m inclined to be mildly against both of them. Midtown Rose (#1A) looks like the stronger half of the Mertkan Kantarmaci entry as she also makes her first start off a claim. However, she has to get faster to beat the favorite, and her price will get reduced by an entry mate that I’m not thrilled by. The same goes for Hydra (#2B), who is my preferred half of the Rudy Rodriguez entry. She ran pretty well at a lower level last time after racing against a bias on Jan. 19. Yet she’s another who needs to improve.
Divine Cross (#5) is a little more appealing as an individual betting interest, but she has to prove she can be as effective cutting back in distance after running so well going a mile last time. She has run well sprinting in the past, but has to avoid getting outrun going this shorter distance.
My top pick is Everlys Girl (#7). She’s coming off a poor result last time, but she had a couple of things working against her that day. She hopped at the start and was off behind the field, which is a disaster for a horse who wants to be forwardly placed. Furthermore, she was then forced to race outside trying to catch up on Jan. 19, which featured an intense rail bias. The pace was slow ahead of her, which also worked against her cause. She lost by many lengths, but that wasn’t unusual for horses who got wide trips on Jan. 18 and 19, and many have since bounced back to their prior form. I’m hoping this mare can do that as well because her effort two back first off the claim for Michelle Nevin gives her a chance to beat the favorite. She figures to be the right price and she’s drawn well outside of the other speed.