Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Concorde Spirit ready for class rise in current form

Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 3:46 p.m. (ET)

Baron of Sealand (#2) will probably beat this field if he repeats the 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned last time out. The argument against this likely favorite is that his last effort might be somewhat enhanced by spending the first two-thirds of his trip riding the rail. That was one of the Rudy Rodriguez trainee's many recent days at Aqueduct that featured an inside bias. His prior form doesn't make him any kind of standout here, though he did run reasonably well at this level with a wide trip back in December. He appears to be in better form now and proved that he can get the distance in January.

This distance is a major concern for Shadow Dragon (#6), who I have never liked going two turns. He stretches out off the claim for new connections, but his recent form is somewhat dubious and he's going to take money merely because Flavien Prat is riding.

Leftembehind (#4) is the other horse for Rudy Rodriguez, and he offers some appeal after running deceptively well at this level last time. He was off slowly and made an early backstretch move to contest the pace before fading. He can handle this distance but has to get over his recent tendency to break poorly.

My top pick is Concorde Spirit (#3), who steps up off a victory at the N1X level. He looks a little slower than some of the main players, but he has run better than the bare results would indicate in a few of his recent starts. That was certainly the case when he closed for second behind the talented Mo Eighty Eight on Nov. 29 despite going wide over an inside-biased course. He then overcame another wide trip to cross the wire first in December, only to get disqualified. He finally broke through that first-level allowance condition last time, doing so despite never racing inside over an extremely rail-biased course. He has taken a real step forward in recent starts and seems ready for the step up in class.