Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Clever Mischief may have pace advantage with switch to turf
Saratoga | Race 3 | Post Time 2:20 p.m. (ET)
The entry figures to go off at a pretty short price in this turf maiden event. Storm Ready (#1A) is obviously the more accomplished half of the pair at this point in time. A repeat of either of his last two turf efforts would make him awfully tough for this field to handle. He actually ran better than the result might indicate in his debut when he was green and got a conservative ride. He’s since put things together, closing stoutly into a fast pace two back before chasing home the talented Unit Economics last time. He also showed a new dimension in that race, placing himself closer to the early pace, and that versatility should serve him well this time. Entrymate Steadfast Resolve (#1) would have been interesting as an individual betting interest, since he had a significant trip last time, making a premature, wide move in a three-turn race. However, there’s no value in betting him as part of this entry.
Tom Collins (#5) returns from a nine-month layoff for his belated 3-year-old debut. He showed some promise as a juvenile once he got on turf, finishing just a half-length behind subsequent Grade 2 stakes winner Agate Road at this venue last September. He then lost as the favorite at Aqueduct without much excuse, but he’s had plenty of time to mature since then. He’s bred to be a nice turf runner, and now gets Lasix for his return. Shug McGaughey does well with these types, going 17 for 68 (25%, $2.17 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more in turf routes over five years.
Chad Brown has an uncoupled pair of runners in this race. Passive Management (#4) figures to attract more support as a gelding by Dubawi who was purchased for $601k overseas at Tattersalls. His dam is a full sister to a Group 3 winner overseas, so there is some quality in his female family. Brown obviously excels with first-time starters, and his horse has worked reasonably well on dirt for this debut on turf.
I prefer Brown’s other entrant, Clever Mischief (#6). This homebred had worked well prior to his debut, taking some money to go off at 6-1 in a loaded field on Belmont Stakes weekend. However, he couldn’t keep up early and never looked quite comfortable racing in traffic. He now switches to turf without much obvious grass pedigree. Yet Into Mischief is underrated as a turf sire, winning with a solid 13 percent of his turf-route starters, and Brown does well with maidens who immediately switch surfaces like this. I’m also encouraged by his work tab. He got in a turf workout on July 5, going in company with MTO entrant Commander of Truth, and appeared to be striding over the surface better than he’s moved on dirt. I think he’s going to step forward with the surface switch, and I won’t be surprised when Flavien Prat sends him to the front in a race lacking much early speed.