Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: City Fever has talent to handle stretch-out in Gio Ponti

Belmont at the Big A | Race 2 | Post Time 1:08 p.m. (ET)

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The two favorites look pretty formidable at first glance in this Gio Ponti, but I think they both have some questions to answer. Appraise (#5) comes off the best last race of any of these when finishing second against a strong field in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame. However, he was no match for stablemate Carl Spackler and was losing ground quickly at the end of that race. He probably should have finished behind third-place finisher More Than Looks, who had a much tougher trip. It’s obvious that Appraise has returned as an improved horse this season, but I still have some doubts about him being a true two-turn horse. He was a decent price last time, and now he’s going to be favored off that perfect trip effort.

Northern Invader (#3) is the other horse who figures to take money, primarily based on that dazzling 8-length maiden victory in his turf debut at Belmont in July. Yet he failed to run back to that performance when he tried stakes company in the Secretariat at Colonial. Bet down to 9-5 favoritism, he had his chance to make an impact and just faded in the stretch. I’m a little concerned that he beat a weak field in that maiden score, and he might not build on that performance. Given very short prices on these two, I’m willing to look elsewhere.

Bat Flip (#2) has some races for his 2-year-old season that put him in the mix, but his recent form has been abysmal. He hasn’t gotten ideal trips in those races, but I still would have preferred to see him do some running. Ohana Honor (#4) is coming off a visually impressive allowance score at Colonial, but he beat a very weak field that day.

The only other horse to consider is City Fever (#1), and I think there’s a good case to be made for this colt. He showed talent in that narrow loss on debut, and obviously benfited from that experience in his second start, showing vastly improved tactical speed to lead throughout. I’m not as concerned about his quality as he steps up against stakes company. He earned a competitive 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that maiden score, and multiple horses have returned from that race to validate the number. The major question is the distance, but he does have pedigree to go at least a mile, and I like his inside draw in this compact field. He goes out for an underrated barn and should be a fair price.