Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Capital Conquest’s recent form stronger than it appears

Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 2:55 p.m. (ET)

The horse to beat in this starter allowance is probably Natural Harbor (#5), who tries to rebound for Linda Rice following a poor effort at this level last time. For whatever reason, he just lacked early speed that day, getting outrun from his rail draw and never recovering, trailing in last throughout. He’s clearly better than that, but it’s fair to wonder if he’s lost his best form after looking so sharp in those first few starts for Rice. He does draw better here, posted outside of his main pace rival Return the Ring (#4). However, he still has to prove he can bounce back and he figures to be a short price.

The David Jacobson entry also figures to take money here, especially if both start. I prefer Uncle George (#1A) of that pair, since he’s run well in all of his recent starts. His effort on Feb. 4 was particularly strong, since he didn’t break well and was chasing outside against a rail bias every step of the way. However, he got a better trip last time and still couldn’t seal the deal, and that’s the problem with this horse. Even when he runs well, he often settles for minor awards.

Blue Plate Special (#2) was probably one you would have rather had last time when he was dismissed at 11-1 despite coming off a trip where he was compromised by the Feb. 3 rail bias. He improved markedly off the claim for Randi Persaud, earning a 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that effort gives him a big chance here, but he has to do it stepping up in class.

My top pick is Capital Conquest (#3). This Parx shipper figures to get dismissed at a square price in a race where the locally based runners have simply earned faster speed figures overall. However, I think it’s worth highlighting a few efforts in his past performances that suggest he might be this good. He ran a race that would make him very tough against a group like this back on Oct. 17 when slicing between rivals to win going away. That 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure might actually be conservative, since the second and fourth place finishers both came back to win with 112 and 106 speed figures. Since then he hasn’t gotten ideal trips on a few occasions, including last time when always outrun in a speed-dominated affair at Penn National. I’m encouraged that there’s no drop in class as he comes to NYRA, and I think he’s the kind of horse that could be suited by this demanding Aqueduct surface.