Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Brave Bear stretches back out to appropriate distance
Aqueduct | Race 5 | Post Time 2:10 p.m. (ET)
This starter/optional-claiming event draws a well-matched field in which a few of the key players are stepping up against winners for the first time. That is the case for likely favorite Just Licorice (No. 6), who exits a 6 1/2-length score at the statebred $40k maiden claiming level just 12 days ago. The quick turnaround isn’t a major concern, since Linda Rice does well off any kind of short rest. I just wonder if he’s going to run as well here after he was so well-supported at the betting windows last time. He didn’t exactly look like a 9-5 shot on paper, but he ran to that backing, perhaps improving with the addition of Lasix. He’s dangerous if he runs back to that performance, but I’m mildly skeptical.
Arcadian (No. 8) was similarly impressive in his maiden score just seven days ago, and he now comes back first off the claim for Wayne Potts. He has clearly improved with added ground, but he did get to control a fairly soft pace last time, and he likely has to deal with a quick early tempo here. Akinmusire (No. 4) is the remaining last-out maiden winner, having beaten auction-restricted foes sprinting last month. He didn’t get much of a speed figure for that performance and was flattered by a fast pace that ultimately collapsed. He rallied wide over a rail-biased surface but saved ground for the first half of that affair.
Jerry’s Out (No. 1) is stretching out on dirt in distance for the first time, but his early speed figures to play well from his inside draw. While his lone route attempt on turf was a disaster, he’s bred to be more of a dirt horse and has the pedigree for added distance. His dam won going 1 1/8 miles on dirt, and he’s a half-brother to decent route winner Prove Worthy. He also gets Lasix for the first time.
My top pick is Brave Bear (No. 7), who didn’t make much of an impact when he tried this level last time. However, he was cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs that day, and this horse is a true router. He obviously needed his first mile attempt for fitness back in November, but he took a significant step forward when he got his second chance to go this distance in December. He chased a very fast pace that completely fell apart behind him and still found enough stamina to dig in for the victory, holding off a closer who had all the momentum in the upper stretch. His pace-upgraded 82 TimeformUS Speed Figure fits with this field, and that number was flattered when Arcadian came back to win. He now gets Lasix and figures to be at a generous price with that poor recent sprint performance showing.