Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Battle of Lexington offers value in return to dirt

Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Battle of Lexington offers value in return to dirt

Belmont | Race 3 | Post Time 1:55 p.m. (ET)

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Meteorite (#6) figures to be a strong favorite in this state-bred maiden affair as he attempts to improve on the result of his debut. He was highly touted that day, getting bet down to 9-5 despite facing some solid experienced rivals. Yet he ran like a horse who probably needed some seasoning. He showed good speed early but lacked some focus on the far turn and dropped back before rallying again in the last furlong to secure third. He was going out for Jimmy Jerkens that day, and now switches into the Todd Pletcher stable while picking up Irad Ortiz. He can obviously beat this field with slight improvement, but those changes are a recipe for him to get overbet.

He has to turn the tables on Refuah (#2) who finished ahead of him in that April 21 affair. It’s a little tough to endorse this 0 for 14 maiden to win given his eight second-place finishes, but he has run multiple speed figures that suggest he’s good enough to break through at this level. The major concern with him is rather his recent form, since he failed to show up in the slop last time, checking in a distantly beaten fifth.

Blue Plate Special (#5) is another who could take some money as he makes his first start off the claim for the dangerous Rick Dutrow, Jr. barn. He certainly has some upside but I’m just not convinced that the stretch-out to one-mile will work for this son of Kantharos who hasn’t exactly finished off his sprints like he wants more ground.

My top pick Battleoflexington (#7). This horse has tried turf twice in his career and failed to handle it each time, so I won’t hold the last effort against him. Prior to that, he competed in the same April 21 event that both Meteorite and Refuah exit, and he didn’t finish that far behind either of them. I also felt he got the toughest trip, since he raced in the two-path early and was guided down to the rail in the stretch on a day when you generally wanted to avoid the inside paths at Aqueduct. There is some pace signed on in here, and this horse is depicted with the LP flag on the TimeformUS Pace Projector, indicating that he has the highest Late Pace Rating in the field. I feel confident he’ll finish strongly as he gets a rider upgrade to Junior Alvarado, and the price should be fair.