Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Amsterdam perfect fit for Smoken Wicked
Saratoga | Race 9 | Post Time 5:53 p.m. (ET)
The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring front-runners in the Grade 2 Amsterdam, and it's pretty clear that Macho Music (#1) is quick enough to make the lead if he wants it. This horse possesses a ton of early speed, and used front-running tactics successfully when dominating the Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby Day. That style didn't work as well for him last time in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens, as he led the field around the far turn but noticeably tired in the late stages while hanging on his left lead. He's now turning back a half-furlong and facing a slightly softer bunch, which might be enough to put him back in the winner's circle. Yet he figures to be a short price, especially with Irad Ortiz Jr. climbing aboard, and I don't fully trust this runner's finishing ability.
Among the quartet of horses exiting the Woody Stephens, the one I'm most inclined to upgrade is Gunmetal (#6), who was never in his preferred running position after a poor start. He was buried in traffic for much of the race and eventually gave up, checking in last. He's better than that, but he does still have to prove he can run a top race without using Lasix. T Kraft (#4) is another I would consider from the Stephens, since he outran his odds to hang around for fifth. This horse has continued to improve as a 3-year-old and possesses the tactical speed to sit reasonably close to the pace.
My top pick is Smoken Wicked (#3). He's only exiting a listed stakes, but that Maxfield at Churchill drew an incredibly deep lineup, so I don't view this as any meaningful rise in class. He was outrun by winner Verifire through the lane, but that horse could be one of the top choices if he shows up in next month's H. Allen Jerkens. Smoken Wicked pressed an honest pace and held on well for second. I'm willing to forgive his loss to Macho Music in the Pat Day Mile, since he got bounced around at the start and probably doesn't want to go that far. He's generally run well every time he's sprinted, and he should be in position to take over from Macho Music if that one falters in the late stages again. He may lack the upside of some others, but his form fits this spot perfectly and he should be a fair price.