Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Adventurist stretching back out to preferred distance

Aqueduct | Race 2 | Post Time 12:40 p.m. (ET)

This $30k conditioned appears to be one of Friday's most competitive affairs despite drawing a small field of six runners. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a Favors Frontrunners scenario, which might lead some handicappers in the direction of Egyptian (#3). This gelding is the only horse in the race coming off a win, having just broken his maiden for this same price tag last time out. That was going a mile, where he stalked an honest pace and took over. He probably won't have to run as fast to make the lead over this group, but he is stepping up to face a much tougher group of rivals.

Linda Rice holds a pretty strong hand, sending out two contenders. Fever Night (#6) has a class advantage between her two entrants, since he's dropping out of a $100k claiming race restricted to 3-year-olds. He was facing much stronger competition on that occasion as well as in his first start off the claim for this barn back in May at Churchill. However, he hasn't been seen since July, and Linda Rice has entered and scratched him a few times since then. His lack of early speed and recency are a concern.

I much prefer Rice's other runner Adventurist (#5), who might go favored after a narrow defeat at this level last time. Like his stablemate, he hadn't seen action since mid-summer when he returned for that recent effort, and was ridden like a horse who would probably need a start. He was handled conservatively away from the gate, dropping far back in the early stages. However, he responded with an encouraging rally when asked for run in the last quarter mile, making up about 10 lengths to just miss catching the winner. Linda Rice used the waiver option that day, further suggesting that he needed that start, and she can protect him again here second off the layoff. I regard him as the most likely winner.

The other horse I would try to get into the mix, primarily underneath Adventurist, is Desperate Proposal (#2). He is stepping up in class out of a softer spot, but I think he has some upside making his first start off the claim for Peter Synnefias, who is 5 for 15 (33%, $5.62 ROI) making this move in dirt routes. This colt has limited experience on dirt, but I thought he handled it well last time despite trying to rally through traffic up the rail. The added distance should suit him