Free's Santa Anita preview for Saturday, Sept. 27

Saturday, Sept. 27, preview

ARCADIA, Calif. – In addition to an early first post (12:30 p.m. Pacific) Saturday at Santa Anita, there is plenty to consider before attacking the 11-race card that has five Grade 1 races.

But first, a Friday review is mandatory. Santa Anita installed a new racing surface in the summer called El Segundo sand. The surface is all natural rather than the manmade material that masqueraded as dirt but was more like a speed-favoring highway of sand.

The Friday card was the first over the new surface. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Any chance that the new surface would play fair to all running styles went out the window with the weather. It was 87 degrees in Arcadia; the track was watered and tight. Fast times were normal, and front-runners/pace pressers ruled.

To be fair, most winners made sense. There were not any crazy longshots who made the lead and kept going. But horses who were not 1-2-3 early did not win.

The weather is expected to cool over the weekend, and the profile could shift. But let there be no mistake – speed was king Friday on the El Segundo sand.

And now, it is on to Saturday.

Race 1, FIRST-TIME G

Can a first-time starter also be a first-time gelding? In the case of Guyfromtheskyfive, perhaps the answer is yes.

Halfway through summer, it looked like Guyfromtheskyfive was not going to make it in Southern California. He was too slow. The 2-year-old posted yet another dawdling work in late July, after which trainer Bob Hess. Jr. figured the only thing left to do was geld him.

After being gelded, Guyfromtheskyfive turned it around. It surprised Hess, who said the change was dramatic. Guyfromtheskyfive began to train like a racehorse. Sired by Indygo Shiner, he debuts Saturday against an apparently soft field of $50,000 maiden-claiming statebreds.

Guyfromtheskyfive might not win, but it is clear that being gelded was the best thing that could have happened.

For the record, this handicapper picked Original Rex. He also debuts as a gelding. Trained by Doug O’Neill, he was sired by the young California stallion Square Eddie, whose progeny have won 16 percent first time out.

What is the bottom line? Race 1 is a “spread” race.

Race 3, KEY SCRATCH LIKELY

When a longshot scratches, most of the time no one cares. Other times, the least-likely winner has an impact. To a degree, that is the case in race 3, an allowance turf sprint from which 30-1 Raise the Hoof is expected to scratch.

It only makes a difference because Raise the Hoof has just enough speed to push the pace. If he does scratch, it boosts the chances of the two leading contenders. Those are Bettys Bambino and Bourne Hot.

Bourne Hot is likely to make the lead. But it is his first start since January, and Doug O’Neill-trained comebackers usually run better having had a prep race. On the other hand, if he clears the field, he could get brave.

Meanwhile, program favorite Bettys Bambino has enough gas to nip at the heels of Bourne Hot. Those two seem likely to dominate. As for 5-2 second favorite Heat Flash, his form seems dull. But when Del Mar canceled turf sprints this summer, it pretty much eliminated any chance at seasonal success. Heat Flash is a turf sprinter.

He will roll late.

Race 4, SECOND-START IMPROVEMENT

For a good example of a first-time starter who appeared to be in for a schooling run, the debut by race 4 starter Smuggler Union is worth video review (DMR, Sept. 3, race 7). The gelding was well backed at 3.90-1 and finished a better-than-it-looked fourth.

He popped the gate without being asked, raced within striking range but stayed wide, loomed a threat in the lane, and finished third in a race dominated by one-two finishers who had rail-skimming trips.

It was the ideal prep race for Smuggler Union, a gelding by first-crop sire Kantharos. With a race under his belt, Smuggler Union should improve a ton. He is 6-1.

However, the runner-up from Smuggler Union’s debut race is the horse to beat. Fame and Power raced inside, had to wait briefly, and then finished evenly while nearly three clear of third. He also should improve with a race under his belt.

Race 5, OVERLAY AT 2-1

If the best horse wins the Grade 1 Zenyatta Stakes, it will be two-time champion/two-time Breeders’ Cup winner Beholder in the winner’s circle.

Beholder has trained super for her comeback. Although she missed a week of training in late August due to reopening a leg wound, her recent works at Santa Anita suggest she is ready to fire.

But if the race unfolds on the track like it does on paper, then Iotapa could steal it.

Beholder was a front-runner early in her career, even though trainer Richard Mandella did not train her that way. That was how her former jockey Garrett Gomez preferred to ride her, by using her speed. It worked, so why change?

But Mandella always emphasized that Beholder had more than one way to go. She did not need the lead. She proved as much in winning the Breeders’ Cup Distaff from third position, a comeback in April from second, and rallying from off the pace in the Grade 1 Phipps.

The point is that Beholder is not expected to be asked for speed Saturday. It is her first start in 3 1/2 months. It is a prep race for the BC Distaff. No reason to go pedal-to-the-metal first start back.

That leaves Iotapa, whose nemesis is drawn to her inside. That is Tiz Midnight, an allowance filly moving up from N2X. Tiz Midnight has been racing on the front end, giving some handicappers reason to believe she will give Iotapa an early tussle.

However, comparing the fractions of races that Tiz Midnight exits with the fractions of the races Iotapa exits, they really are not close. Iotapa is a faster filly than Tiz Midnight. That makes Iotapa the controlling speed, possibly the lone speed, in the Grade 1 Zenyatta. She is not the best horse, but she is the best speed.

And if Iotapa starts at 2-1 or higher, she would qualify as a low-odds overlay.

Race 6, DOES BIAS MATTER?

American Pharoah is the fastest horse in the Grade 1 FrontRunner. The 2-year-old colt should win the 1 1/16-mile race at low odds. This handicapper believes American Pharoah is the most probable winner on the card, even if it is his first route.

But there is one caveat, brought up solely for the sake of discussion. When he crushed the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity by nearly five lengths, American Pharoah did it with a distinct bias in his favor.

Five sprints were run Sept. 3 at Del Mar. Four were won by the pacesetter; the other was won by a horse positioned second, a head from the lead.

Does bias matter? Of course, it does. Therefore, the possibility exists that American Pharoah is not quite as imposing as his most recent start suggests.

Races 7 and 9, VIDEO REVIEW

Moulin de Mougin, a contender in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive (race 7), won her most recent start more impressively than the half-length margin indicates. It was the Grade 2 John C. Mabee Stakes (DMR, Aug. 10, race 8).

Moulin de Mougin was blocked and buried into the lane. Jockey Mike Smith stayed cool. The filly stayed blocked. It looked like she would never get out. But finally, Smith found a seam on the rail, and Moulin de Mougin exploded. She might be a better filly than the race suggests. And she might be good enough to post an upset at 5-1.

Stars Above Me, a contender in the $75,000 Unzip Me Stakes (race 9), lost her most recent start (SAR, Aug. 25, race 9). She had an alibi.

Stars Above Me got rank, was hard-held inside, blocked on the turn, and blocked into the lane. Her jockey wrapped up, and Stars Above Me merely coasted to the wire. It was a complete and total toss-out by a filly whose U.S. debut two starts back was explosive.