Free's review: Beware of serial runner-up finishes
Sunday, June 8, review
The spotlight Sunday at Santa Anita was on three races for California-breds – a stakes, an allowance, and a maiden sprint. In all three, key contenders fell short. The handicapping lesson: Be careful who you trust.
SURE WINNER – NOT
Jade With Envy was a “can’t miss” in race 4. She was working well for her first start in two months and was proven at the Cal-bred allowance level (runner-up last out). She had proven form on the hillside turf course, with appropriate speed figures. At even-money, Jade With Envy was a standout, according to this handicapper.
However, contrarians pointed out that Jade With Envy’s seven starts had produced just one win and four runner-up finishes. She was bashful at the wire.
Now she has five runner-up finishes. Jade With Envy offered a halfhearted rally and finished three-quarters of a length behind front-runner Natalie Paige ($6.40). The winner rolled gate to wire in 1:13.36 and earned an 81 Beyer Speed Figure. Jack Carava trains the 3-year-old filly by In Excess.
As for Jade With Envy, her loss illustrates a negative angle – stretch runners who have a lopsided number of runner-up finishes cannot be trusted. Some horses underachieve again and again. Jade With Envy could be that type. She has enough ability to win a Cal-bred allowance and might be this handicapper’s top choice again. But until she purges her habit of finishing second, calling her a “can’t miss” is incorrect.
Next Book, the beaten favorite in race 5, was another example. Her neck defeat in a Cal-bred maiden race was her fourth photo-finish loss. The difference between Next Book and Jade With Envy is that at least Next Book has speed. She actually kicked away at the furlong pole before being worn down. Next Book might be the horse to beat next out, but she will not be a single.
CRYSTAL WATER RECAP
Like most recent John Sadler-trained comebackers, Ethnic Dance needed a prep. He set a leisurely pace (47.30 seconds and 1:10.80) in the $100,000 Crystal Water Stakes for California-breds at a mile on turf but faded to third.
A forgiving handicapper will allow Ethnic Dance a pass for his first start since he won the watered-down (two divisions) Grade 2 Del Mar Derby nine months ago. After all, Sadler does not crank up comebackers.
Since the start of the year, Sadler is 0 for 18 with horses off six months or more. Second start back, he is a 15 percent trainer. That is a factor to consider Saturday in race 9, when Sadler starts maiden contender Shysheisnot in a turf sprint. It’s her first start since December.
Considering the slow pace set by Ethnic Dance, his comeback was disappointing. Yes, he can improve. But the $150,000 California Dreamin’ Handicap for statebreds July 27 at Del Mar (1 1/16 miles on turf) might be the extent of his summer objective.
Unusual Heatwave and Mega Heat, the one-two finishers in the Crystal Water, also are candidates for the California Dreamin’.
Unusual Heatwave, trained by Alexis Barba, has won the last three Cal-bred stakes he tried. He won the $300,000 Snow Chief Stakes routing on the Hollywood Park main track in 2012, the $200,000 Real Good Deal Stakes sprinting on the Del Mar main track in 2012, and the Crystal Water routing on turf.
One final thing: Unusual Heatwave flatters a horse who runs Thursday. In his most recent start May 20 in a second-level allowance, Unusual Heatwave finished 1 1/4 lengths behind runner-up Jules Journey, a contender Thursday in race 4.
WHO’S HOT, WEEKLY
Elvis Trujillo and Drayden Van Dyke topped the one-week (June 5-8) jockey standings; each had five wins. Trujillo had 23 mounts; he was 1 for 11 on dirt and 4 for 12 on turf. Van Dyke rode a colony-high 26 races; he was 5 for 16 on dirt and 0 for 10 on turf. Corey Nakatani was 4 for 14, Fernando Perez 4 for 17, Tiago Pereira was 3 for 9, and Mario Gutierrez was 2 for 6. Joe Talamo leads the meet with 28 wins, six more than Van Dyke.
Vann Belvoir and Peter Miller topped the one-week trainer standings; each won three. Belvoir started six; Miller and Doug O’Neill (two wins) were the most active, each with 15 starters. Molly Pearson went 2 for 2; both winners were 2-year-olds who made their most recent start at Turf Paradise. O’Neill leads the meet with 22 wins. Miller has 14.
NOT HOT, WEEKLY
Leading jockey Talamo was 1 for 21 from June 5-8, while third-ranked Tyler Baze was 0 for 10. Jose Valdivia has lost 32 straight since his most recent win April 11. Trainer Walther Solis started six runners last week; none hit the board. Daily Racing Form’s analyst for Santa Anita was 8 for 36, generating a paltry $1.11 return for each $2 win bet.
WEEKLY STAT MASH
Average field size June 5-8 was 7.47 starters per race. (Average field size for the meet is 7.76.)
Favorites won 10 of 36 races (27.7 percent) last week. (Favorites are 74 for 232 overall at the meet, 32 percent.)
The week’s highest-odds winners were June 7 on turf. El Tovar paid $56.20 in a sprint for statebred maidens; Proud Boss paid $50.80 racing one mile for a $25,000 claiming tag. The highest-odds dirt winner was Chicsdigtheshark, $15.20 in an optional-claiming sprint June 7.
Horses to Watch
BEACH FEVER
Trainer: Mark Glatt
Last race: June 8, 5th
Finish: 6th by 7 1/4
Beyer: 50
This first-timer ran like a horse who needed a start. He broke last of eight and then went evenly the rest of the way. He had decent works going in and should improve a ton with a race under his belt.
MOM’S WINNER
Trainer: Louis Bradvica
Last race: June 8, 9th
Finish: 2nd by 2 3/4
Beyer: 59
This was a nice second start by a $20,000 maiden-claiming filly. She showed improved speed chasing a runaway winner and finished well clear of third. Looms as a short price at the same level.