Free's preview: Who are the pick six must-plays?

The Friday pick six at Santa Anita begins with $407,077, thanks to a two-day carryover from Memorial Day weekend. New money Friday could top $2 million. It’s worth taking a shot.

The twilight card starts at 3 p.m. The pick six starts at 4. Now is a good time to find the “key horses” in the pick-six sequence (races 3-8).

Race 3: MCL route

No one wants to get KO’d in the first leg. But in maiden-20 routes at Santa Anita, bettors recently have found the winner without spending a ton.

Seven route races for maiden-20s have been run since the start of the winter meet Dec. 26. Five were won by the first or second betting choice; two “longshot” winners returned $14 and change.

The common denominator is every maiden-20 winner recently had earned a mid-60s Beyer Speed Figure or higher; five finished in the money their previous start. So what is the problem Friday?

The problem is only one of the eight runners earned a recent figure equal to par. Stauffenberg earned a 62 last out, albeit on turf. That is okay because he earned 63 on dirt in January. With a good recent number and established dirt form, Stauffenberg is a must-use in the 13th start of his career. He is the 7-2 third choice and unimpressive in the morning per clocker analysis.

Midnight Mayhem, the 8-5 favorite, is the top choice. He was gelded prior to his May 2 effort, an OK third in a seven-furlong sprint. He was subsequently overmatched in a maiden-40 on turf and returns to the bottom while stretching out for the first time.

The top figure by Midnight Mayhem is a mere 58 Beyer. That is a knock. He would be the first horse this season to win a maiden-20 route without having previously earned a mid-60s number. Use him, yes. Trust him, no.

Takeit To the Limit stretches out following one ordinary sprint. He is fast enough to set the pace, but asking a Wildcat Heir to win a route second time out seems tough. Yodeling Honey stretches out from two even-paced sprints. The knock is his effort looks better on paper than on video. He should like two turns, however.

Key horses: Midnight Mayhem (#4), Stauffenberg (#6).

Race 4: Turf theft

New Nature has never run long and never on turf. But the stretch-out filly is the controlling speed in this mile turf race for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares, non-winners of two.

Three of the last eight turf races at one mile on turf have been won by the pacesetter (two with rails down, another with the rails at eight feet). The rails Friday are at 30.

W ho knows if New Nature can wire the field? She might never get an easier chance. The speed of the field, for a hot trainer (A.C. Avila is 12-3-3-4 this meet), the 4-1 co-third choice is a must-use.

It benefits New Nature that a key pace rival is expected to scratch. Tiz But a Dream is “stuck.” Her connections submitted a scratch. Expect it to be official sometime Friday morning.

Belonging drops from a maiden-40 starter with recent speed figures that put her in the hunt. Apprentice rider Amelia Green scored her one and only U.S. win for Belonging’s trainer, George Papaprodromou, in fall. Returning to turf, Belonging is a “use.”

Gia Is a Bella, 2-1 favorite, returns from a one-year layoff, dropping into a claiming race for the first time. Her training pattern has a gaping hole with no recorded works from May 2 to 25. A bettor might include her for defensive purposes, but she is no sure thing.

Gelila has not raced since September and scratched twice recently – a vet scratch April 27 and a trainer scratch May 23.

Key horses: New Nature (#1), Belonging (#6).
Backup: Gia Is a Bella (#5).

Race 5: Formulator trap

Fanny Brice crushed similar 19 days ago. Can the 8-5 favorite repeat? According to DRF Formulator trainer stats, it is not a winning pattern for Robertino Diodoro.

Five recent Diodoro-trained claimers went favored after winning their previous start. None so much as hit the board (Cuneo, May 25; Dress Code, April 4; Brown is Beige, March 23; Tempe, March 16; Clearly Confused, March 2). Each started under 2-1.

A pick six bettor must include Fanny Brice, but the recent Diodoro trend suggests she is vulnerable.

A key scratch is Small Moves, originally second favorite.

This sprint for $16,000 claiming fillies and mares, non-winners of three, probably is a spread race. How deep does one need to go? Not very, perhaps.

There have been eight races at this N3L class level (both genders) since Dec. 26. Every winner paid $9 or less. It is a predictable level, even with the vulnerability of the favorite.

Others to include are Tribal Peace, returning from a layoff for a winning stable; Serious, a longshot with respectable figures; and steep-dropper Spooky Lady.

Key horses: Spooky Lady (#2), Fanny Brice (#5), Tribal Peace (#6), Serious (#8).

Race 6: A single

Nickels Wild, 2-1 second choice on the morning line, can win this allowance route for fillies and mares. Her last four starts have been super.

Nickels Wild battled for the lead at the furlong pole in three recent graded stakes, sandwiched around a good runner-up allowance effort behind subsequent N2X winner Moulin de Mougin.

Nickels Wild has speed for a forward position in a 1 1/8-mile turf race that is short on pace. Single her? Why not?

Hijra is the 9-5 favorite based on a solid U.S. debut. Outrun early in the turf sprint, she finished evenly (the pacesetters dominated) and galloped out in front. Can a European import stretch to nine furlongs off one sprint? Maybe.

Warren’s Rosebud, freshened two months, has an up-front style and appropriate figures. Winning Rhythm will finish. A clever race watcher suggests Smooth Talker was merely prepping in her comeback. She should improve second start back and can be close to the possibly soft pace. Upsetter?

Key horse: Nickels Wild (#8).

Race 7: Sophs vs. older

A first-level allowance for filly-mare sprinters boils down to 5-2 favorite Lemon de Oro and 3-1 second choice Antiquity. Both are lightly raced 3-year-old fillies facing older. They might run one-two.

Lemon de Oro ran super in her comeback four weeks ago. Breaking from an inside post for her first start in six months, she dueled to deep stretch and tired to fourth. It was a big comeback by a promising filly moving from the rail to the middle of the field.

Lemon de Oro also benefits from the shorter distance, from 6 1/2 furlongs to six.

The well-regarded Antiquity proved in her debut last summer she runs fresh. She scored a solid debut victory at Del Mar, was overmatched in a Grade 1 route, and then sidelined.

Trainer John Sadler is unveiling a wave of fresh horses for the second half of the season, and Antiquity is “live” under apprentice Drayden Van Dyke.

A pace meltdown would benefit Miss Radiance, two-time winner at this level entered for the $40,000 optional claim tag. The route-to-sprint Sagebrush Queen is back at her preferred sprint trip.

Key horses: Antiquity (#4), Lemon de Oro ($5).

Race 9: Formulator nugget

Sadler is 4 for 10 with first-time starters on the Santa Anita hill over the past 18 months, according to Formulator. Good stat. Sadler starts Itsgettinhotinhere, a gelding by Unusual Heat, in this maiden-50 turf sprint.

Itsgettinhotinhere is a new face against a seemingly ordinary bunch. Warrior’s Ridge drops in for a tag; Tribal Dude also drops for his first start in a year.

Red Globe, Navarre, and Lassie’s Reward finished 2-3-4 recently in a spill-marred race that might not have been that great.

Key horses: Tribal Dude (#4), Warrior’s Ridge (#5), Itsgettinhotinhere (#10).

Good luck.