Free's preview: Two spot plays for Thursday

Thursday, June 12, preview

Santa Anita has a new voice Thursday. While announcer Trevor Denman takes a break through June 27, the colorful Frank Mirahmadi will man the microphone. Mirahmadi is the full-time announcer at Oaklawn Park in the spring and calls action at the Northern California fairs in the summer.

Denman returns July 28 for closing weekend, which includes the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Meanwhile, the voice may be different, but most of the horses are the same. That includes many running Thursday. Now is a good time for a closer look.

LOW HEAT

Over a seven-season, 60-start career, veteran gelding Mensa Heat won 10 races, including the 2011 Pirate’s Bounty Stakes and the On Trust Handicap, earning $537,438. When he starts Thursday in an $8,000 claiming route (race 3), Mensa Heat will feel pressure.

For only the second time in his career, the 8-year-old will start at odds-on. Santa Anita oddsmaker Jon White pegged Mensa Heat as the 3-5 favorite in the 1 1/16-mile race. The price makes sense. That does not mean he is a sensible wager.

Mensa Heat finished a close second in two recent races at the level, more than three lengths clear of third each time. Brice Blanc rides Mensa Heat on Thursday for trainer Ted H. West. His rivals are ordinary.

Mensa Heat, Grade 1-placed, having finished third to Amazombie in the 2011 Ancient Title, has started at odds-on once before, June 25, 2011, at Hollywood Park. He won that allowance at $2.80. Probably more of the same Thursday, although a potential upset candidate will roll from behind (see Spot Plays below).

BABY RACE PREVIEW

The odds have gone up on Time for Action, a 2-year-old filly who makes her debut in race 3. Walther Solis trains Time for Action, who was scheduled to debut May 15. She was listed at 3-1 in the program that day. Due to extreme heat, the card was canceled.

When the race was redrawn for May 18, Solis removed Time for Action from the lineup and instead entered My Fiona. She won going away, while Time for Action’s training was interrupted. She did not work again until June 1. On Thursday, she appears ready.

Time for Action was sired by Time to Get Even and produced by Action Girl. That makes her a full sister to a colt who won his debut by a length one year ago for Solis. The runner-up that day was a then-unknown colt named California Chrome.

Solis was asked if there are similarities between Time for Action and Time for a Hug. Several, he said. “They have the same kind of body and same attitude. They look alike.”

Time for Action “is quick,” Solis said. Her rider is Fernando Perez. On Thursday, she is listed at 8-1. It makes sense. The Thursday race looks tougher than the race Time for Action initially entered.

The favorite Thursday in the five-furlong race for California-bred 2-year-olds is Line Leader, the Jeff Bonde-trained filly who led to deep stretch in her debut. She is likely to improve. Trust her? Not really.

FORMULATOR THURSDAY

Everyone knows that trainer Jerry Hollendorfer wins races. His 6,662-win total through Wednesday was accompanied by a 23 percent win rate. It also carries a price – a flat-bet loss. Can a Hollendorfer “angle” produce higher results? One can.

Race 7 entrant Carlot Cowboy was claimed May 17 from a fourth-place finish in a $20,000 claimer. On Thursday, he is first off the claim for Hollendorfer. That is the angle.

Over the past year, according to Formulator, Hollendorfer is 9 for 15 with first-off-the-claim sprinters in Southern California. The return on investment for each $2 win bet is a whopping $3.73.

Carlot Cowboy is listed at 7-2. At that price, he is a best bet, indeed.

BEAT BAD FIELD

Pressure Time looked good in winning a turf sprint for maiden California-breds last out. He earned a good number (86 Beyer), and the margin was decisive. He looks like an obvious contender Thursday in race 8.

But was the race legitimate? Based on the subsequent performances of the two-three finishers behind Pressure Time, one wonders. Runner-up It Is Living Water returned to finish eighth as the 6-5 favorite against maidens; third-place Troy Story finished seventh as a 4-1 contender next out. It is possible that Pressure Time looked good in winning mainly because his rivals were suspect.

SPOT PLAYS

Race 2
ANCIENT STONE (#1, 10-1) faces a formidable rival in Mensa Heat, who defeated him by many last out. However, Ancient Stone needed the race. A legitimate pace Thursday could allow Ancient Stone to spring a third Santa Anita upset ($40.40 two back; $152.80 last fall).

Race 7
CARLOT COWBOY (#5, 7-2) goes first off the claim for Hollendorfer, an angle that is 9 for 15 in Southern California sprints over the past year. Good back form, good figures, and good price.