Free's preview: Two spot plays for pick six

The pick six carryover into Friday is $61,937. Not a bad card to dive into. Who knows? Maybe it is a lucky day, even if it is Friday the 13th.

Baby race preview

The pick six begins in race 3. Race 4 is a sprint for statebred maiden 2-year-olds in which many in the field are first-time starters. It is the second leg and, therefore, “hidden.” Pick six bettors will make decisions without knowledge of wagering patterns (beyond daily double probable payoffs).

A couple notes on a couple first-timers:

Goyo is a full brother to Grace Upon Grace, a 2-year-old debut winner for trainer Walther Solis five summers ago. Goyo has worked well according to National Turf clocker Andy Harrington, and he has at least one key similarity to debut winner Grace Upon Grace. The penultimate workout for Grace Upon Grace into his debut was a 47.60-second gate work. The penultimate work for Goyo was a 47.60 gate work. Goyo is 7-2.

Keegers is a first-time starter sired by Papa Clem. He was a vet scratch May 30 but worked an easy half-mile June 7. His works are ordinary, even if his pedigree suggests one should take a closer look. Progeny of Papa Clem are 6 for 25 first time out.

Full Bird Colonel is this handicapper’s preference. He lost all chance in his debut two weeks ago when he broke slowly and merely ran around the track in what looked like a prep race. With a clean takeoff second time out, he should improve. He also is 7-2.

Atta’ Boy Woody has worked slowly, but trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is already 2 for 2 this meet with debut 2-year-olds. The son of Atticus is the 3-1 program favorite.

Maiden races for 2-year-olds have been running true to form. Favorites this meet are 6 for 16. The median payoff (half higher, half lower) is $8, and the highest-odds winner was $20.80, Henry’s Holiday on May 9.

The competition

Brother Soldier enters race 7 Friday at Santa Anita with positively conspicuous company lines. He has faced Bayern (Grade 2 Woody Stephens Stakes winner), Dance With Fate (Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes), Shared Belief (champion 2-year-old), and Can the Man (Grade 3 Affirmed Stakes).

Brother Soldier also will make his first start since being gelded and enters the one-mile turf race for 3-year-olds, non-winners other than, with a potential pace advantage. He might be the lone speed. Come and catch him.

However, Brother Soldier is not the only dropper. In fact, 6-5 favorite Quotient exits a Churchill Downs turf stake that was unusually productive, even if it not evident from his company line. There are no italics designating next-out winners.

But with only a little poking around on Formulator, it becomes evident the Grade 3 American Turf in which Quotient finished third had a good field. The winner Global View returned to finish second in the $500,000 Penn Mile; runner-up Storming Inti finished second in the Penn Mile; fourth-place Long On Value was second in the Grade 3 Arlington Classic; and fifth-place General Jack trounced an N1X at Churchill Downs by more than four lengths.

Quotient, third by 2 1/2 lengths against those rivals, might not win the first-level turf allowance Friday. But a bettor must acknowledge Quotient is taking a huge drop and facing easier competition than he met last month in Kentucky.

Formulator finale

Coconut Cream Pie returns to a winning spot in race 8 – a $30,000 maiden claiming sprint. It is easier than the Calbred special weights she has been running in for more than a year. Coconut Cream Pie is this handicapper’s top choice in her 11th career start.

But it is not a one-horse race. The speedy Editor’s Cut drops from $75,000 maiden claiming and is likely to be in front of Coconut Cream Pie early. The dilemma is surface. Editor’s Cut is 0 for 2 and trying dirt for the first time.

From a pedigree standpoint, there are questions. Editor’s Cut was sired by Santa Anita Derby winner Brother Derek, but her dam, Film Editor, preferred grass. That is a potential knock. The next question is trainer. How does Pete Eurton do turf to dirt?

The answer is that he does well enough. Although the turf-to-dirt pattern for Eurton is far from conclusive, recent Formulator statistics show Eurton has won enough races with surface swtichers that Editor’s Cut must be considered.

During a one-week span in April 2012, Eurton won three races turf to dirt (Valley Cat, Chickie Charms, Called to Serve). He won again with a turf-to-dirt runner in January 2013 (Sydney’s Darling). The total is four wins from his last 17 turf-to-dirt runners.

What is the bottom line? Eurton can win turf to dirt. Bettors who like Editor’s Cut can wager on the dropper with increased confidence. Other bettors such as this one, who prefer Coconut Cream Pie, must recognize the Eurton dropper is formidable out front.

Spot plays

Race 5
CONTESSA B. (#1, 4-1) finished well for third in a race dominated by the pacesetters. She makes her California debut and third career start in a maiden-40 starter allowance. Her trainer, Bob Hess Jr., and jockey Kent Desormeaux are 3 for 6 at the meet. All three wins were prices ($35.40 Kadesha, $23 Prodigious, and $30.60 Fort Wagner).

Race 6
MARY CONTRARY (#3, 7-2) was eliminated by a slow start last time out. She cuts back to a sprint first off the claim by Jerry Hollendorfer and could be a standout.