Free's preview: Turf favorites find trouble
DEL MAR, Calif. – It has been a steady stream of high-odds winners since turf racing resumed Aug. 9 at Del Mar. That is good, right? That depends on wagering style.
Turf favorites have taken a beating all summer, winning a mere 19 percent. In three racing days since turf racing returned, favorites are 1 for 9 with five double-digit winners.
The sample is too small to draw any conclusions, but it is curious. From a bettor’s perspective, Del Mar turf historically is more reliable than Polytrack. That has not been the case this season, though both turf upsets Wednesday were not impossible to find.
Race 2 winner Tangelo ($12.20) was a maiden stretching out from two sprints with good comeback works. Race 6 winner Image of Joplin ($81) had the field’s highest speed figure, 92 Beyer, earned two starts back on dirt.
Hindsight handicapping sure is fun.
Is it too late to catch a price? Bettors will find out Thursday when two grass races highlight an otherwise sleepy card. Time to take a look.
Race 2: Turf underlays
Queen of The Sand is the right horse in this one-mile allowance for fillies and mares. But is 2-1 the right price?
An import from Ireland, Queen of The Sand won an N2X in her second U.S. start two months ago at Santa Anita. There was not much behind her. The fifth-place finisher Oscar Party returned to win, but the other four are still stuck at the second condition.
All six starters Thursday can be knocked. Biorhythm and Miss Ellany both have upfront running styles. They could get in each other’s way even with the turf rails at 30 feet.
If the pace is fast, that won’t help Theatre Star. Her best efforts have been pressing slow fractions. Spring Bloom is not impossible, just unlikely. As for the stranger danger, that is Bunairgead.
She was an expensive purchase at a European auction last fall and makes her U.S. debut for trainer Jim Cassidy. Her abbreviated work pattern suggests she needs one, true for most Cassidy-trained imports – he is 2 for 17 since April 2011 with foreign shippers making their first start. Nonetheless, 6-1 is tempting on Bunairgead.
This handicapper picked Queen of The Sand over Theatre Star – favorite over second favorite. With only six starters, there is little value.
Race 3: Baze slump
Jockey Tyler Baze is mired in a 46-race losing streak that began July 30. He is not riding well. In race 3 Wednesday, he made a premature move that cost Little Jerry victory. In race 8, Baze got stuck in a tight spot into the lane on Aperfectdaytofly. Both horses were favored. Both were compromised by the ride.
Baze rides Kate’s Event in race 3. If the 7-year-old loses, it probably will not be the fault of Baze. Kate’s Event is racing beyond his preferred distance. He always has been best as a sprinter, not a router. He runs one mile in the $45,000-50,000 claiming race, favored at 7-2.
Kate’s Event was compromised by bias last time, racing wide on a track that favored the inside. He is the “best horse” Wednesday, but distance and a chilly rider make him a shaky selection.
Race 6: Turf maidens
Maiden fillies and mares go 1 1/16 miles on turf in race 6, and Freethinker is the most probable winner on the card. That is if backing a short price (7-2 third choice) in a Del Mar turf race is the right move. It has not been the right move this summer.
Freethinker finished third in her July 19 comeback, missing by three-quarters of a length. It was her first start in five months. With a race under her belt, you’d have to think she will win a maiden race in her fourth career start Wednesday.
The 5-2 favorite is Penny Sixpence, whose U.S. debut two months ago was a sixth-place finish. Blinkers are off. Rafael Bejarano is on. She should return as an improved filly. But she also is the chalk. This summer on turf, chalk has lost 81 percent of the time.