Free's preview: Turf course favoring closers
Saturday, July 26, preview
DEL MAR, Calif. – The pick six Saturday at Del Mar will begin with $77,661 already in the pool due to a carryover from Friday. The pick six sequence covers races 5-10.
NO DIVING, race 1
If the low-odds favorite is vulnerable, is a bettor obligated to bet against that horse? Of course not, even if it is tempting.
The dilemma presents itself in the opener, a maiden-40K starter at six furlongs. Off the Deep End, the 5-2 favorite, faces a serious challenge – footing. His two-start career consists of a blowout win on dirt and a fine runner-up try on turf. On Saturday, he will try synthetic.
Some horses do not care about surface, hence the adage they “will run on broken glass.” However, most do have a footing preference. It is unclear which surface Off the Deep End prefers, though it might be dirt.
A son of In Excess, his best race was his first. He set a fast pace and crushed. His second start, albeit against winners, was less impressive. It was on turf, and his pace figure (Tom Brohamer-generated) declined. So did his speed figure, however marginally.
The decline in pace-speed figures is not severe. Maybe Off the Deep End is simply the best horse. He could race gate to wire. But there are reservations. Horses who are effective on three distinct surfaces are rare.
Off the Deep End is the favorite. This handicapper picked him but will not wager on him. Due to a lack of attractive alternatives, it also is tough to bet against him.
HOW SHORT, race 4
Sunday Rules should win the Fleet Treat Stakes for 3-year-old fillies bred in California. She has every key factor in her favor – condition, class, speed, and pace. Her comeback win was followed by sharp works; she is a stakes winner with a figure advantage and looks like the controlling speed.
The likelihood of Sunday Rules winning is not the question. The issue is price. Sunday Rules is listed at 8-5 in the program. Forget about that. How short will she be? My guess is 3-5. No surprise if she goes off at 2-5.
TURF PROFILE, race 5
The new Del Mar grass course is playing like a true grass course. You have to love it. Class and finishing ability are important. The new course is authentic.
How exactly has the new course played? Over the first seven days (through Friday), it was dominated by closers.
19 turf routes
2 winners led at every call
3 others within two lengths at first pace call
4 others within three lengths at first call
10 winners positioned more than three lengths behind first pace
More than half the turf-route winners rallied from the back. Grass racing as it was meant to be.
How does the profile affect the first turf route Saturday? It makes 5-2 favorite Baruta less reliable. The runner-up as the favorite in all four U.S. starts, Baruta is a presser. The closer-friendly profile and pace scenario work against her.
Baruta probably will take heat from fellow pressers Zanbo and Toppers Sunshine. Front-runners under pressure have not won their fair share.
Baruta might win anyway. She is the fastest horse, proven at the N1X level. But if the pace backs up again, two deep closers at 8-1 are worth consideration – Winning Rhythm and Marcyjane.
SUPER PEDIGREE, race 6
If the pedigree of Prospect Park looks familiar, there is good reason. The 2-year-old son of Tapit is by a top broodmare (Quiet Romance) whose best progeny began their careers in auspicious fashion for owners-breeders Pam and Marty Wygod.
The first foal from Quiet Romance who started was Silent Sighs, by Benchmark. She won her debut by six lengths in the fall of 2013 and the following spring won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks. Silent Sighs finished 10th in the Kentucky Oaks and never ran again. She retired having won four races and $442,700 from six starts.
The second foal out of Quiet Romance who started was Proposed, also by Benchmark. She finished third in her debut in the CTBA Stakes at Del Mar and later won two Grade 2s. She retired having won seven races and $567,600 from 15 starts.
Prospect Park, trained by Cliff Sise, was sired by Tapit. His works looks good, he is bred to win early, and before Sise took a five-year hiatus as an active trainer, he could get the first-timers ready to fire.
The favorite is Homer Matt, third in his debut in the $125,000 Santa Anita Juvenile.
Good race, good card.