Free's preview: Track bias shifts, changes up pick six

LOS ALAMITOS, Calif. – It was quite a coincidence Friday at Los Alamitos. Bettors attacking the first pick six double carryover of the meet also were greeted with the first rally-wide bias of the meet.

It is strange how that happens.

Still, final times were quick, and a few deep-closing winners were purely a function of a hot pace. But it was the first time this meet that closers had a chance.

At 5 1/2 furlongs, all three races were won by closers.

At six furlongs, two races (from four at the distance) were won by closers.

That makes five deep-closing winners on the eight-race card. That is more deep-closing winners than the first 42 races combined.

What to expect Saturday? Chances are the same track as Friday – not that it makes much difference because wagering opportunities on the Saturday card are few.

Nine races were planned in the Los Alamitos condition book for Saturday, but owners and trainers already have lucrative Del Mar purses on their minds. As a result, only eight races could be patched together.

Average field size Saturday is 6.7 starters per race. Below is a quick look at a few select races as Los Alamitos nears the finish line of its two-week meet.

Race 1: Derby trainer

The last time trainer Art Sherman was in the winner’s circle for something other than a maiden-claiming race, he was standing next to California Chrome at Pimlico.

That was May 17 after the Preakness. Since then, Sherman has been quiet. To say he is slumping is not accurate. He simply has not been busy. The past six weeks, Sherman has started 12 horses and won one – a $3,500 maiden claimer May 25 at Los Alamitos.

Sherman could win the first race Saturday, a restricted $10,000 claiming sprint with four runners. He starts Sacred Ovation, a comeback speedster making his first start since November. Wagering value? Like many races Saturday, minimal. Sacred Ovation is the 6-5 favorite.

Races 2 and 3: Van Dyke ships

Drayden Van Dyke has been called up to the majors. He will not ride Saturday at Los Alamitos. Instead, he will fly to Arlington Park and replace the sidelined jockey Gary Stevens on stakes mounts at Arlington.

Van Dyke is the leading rider at Los Alamitos; his 28 mounts produced 10 wins, 10 seconds, and one third. He was named to ride Badasmywifeletsmeb in race 1; Alonso Quinonez takes over. Add five pounds; Badasmywifeletsmeb will carry 124.

Van Dyke takes off Broadway Bella in race 3; he is replaced by Edwin Maldonado. Add five pounds. Broadway Bella will carry 119.

Mike Smith replaces Brice Blanc on the race 2 favorite Next Book, the close-but-no-cigar maiden with four in-the-money finishes from four starts. She lost her debut by a head and lost her next three by a neck. On paper, Next Book is a standout at 8-5. Trust her? Nope.

Race 4: New distance

The first seven-furlong race of the meet is a $25,000 starter allowance in which Timeless Indy is the 5-2 favorite. He has good speed figures, drops in class, tries a shorter distance, and returns to dirt. He is this handicapper’s top choice with little creativity.

Senor Rain has a prep race under his belt and adds blinkers. Luca is a live longshot because E.G. Burnison trainees always are live longshots. It was a mistake in the Daily Racing Form analysis not giving Dewrag at least a mention. His two most recent races, a win and a second, were solid. He is a must-use, rallying off the pace.

And did you notice? Closers had the advantage Friday.

Race 5: Juvenile standout

Rowdy Dylan, a 2-year-old second-time starter, is the 9-5 favorite to win the 5 1/2-furlong maiden race. His odds likely will be lower. He broke slow in his debut, finished with run for second, and trained well since. Even money or less is the probable price for the Peter Miller-trained Sky Mesa colt.

The race lacks an obvious second choice. Might as well single Rowdy Dylan and be done with it.

Race 7: Soft Grade 2

The Grade 1 winner Midnight Lucky would have run in the Grade 2 Great Lady M., but she is sidelined. The Grade 2 winner Scherzinger nominated but also skipped it.

Instead, the filly-mare sprint is Heir Kitty vs. Tres Belle. Heir Kitty will be sold one week from Sunday at the Del Mar paddock sale. Tres Belle is an up-and-comer for Bob Baffert, filling in for Midnight Lucky.

Tres Belle won a second-level allowance last out at Churchill Downs, her figures gradually are creeping forward, and she should get a good trip behind the likely pacesetter Amaranth. At 3-1 on the morning line, Tres Belle might be the best gamble on the card.