Free's preview: Tough pick six sequence

Thursday, July 24, preview

DEL MAR, Calif. – Pick six pools at Del Mar this summer seem lighter than usual. But interest will increase Thursday, when a $67,344 carryover is up for grabs.

The sequence covers races 4-9. Now is a good time for a closer look, with one caveat: It is a difficult sequence that is cost-prohibitive for many, including this handicapper.

MAIDEN-CLAIMING SPRINT, race 4

Jockey Tyler Baze works a lot of horses for trainer Jeff Mullins, including Bunuska, a first-time starter listed at 6-1 in this $40,000 filly-mare maiden-claiming sprint. Bunuska, whose training was interrupted multiple times since her first workout in May 2012, has worked well, according to National Turf clocker Andy Harrington.

Citizenship, the 7-2 favorite, is this handicapper’s choice despite a disappointing comeback in a recent maiden special weight race. Trainer Bob Baffert entered her back in a maiden-20K on July 17 but scratched for this maiden-40K. Consider that a mild endorsement. She probably is worth another chance.

Barbs Angel was a vet scratch from a special-weight June 28; she shows up for a tag first out. Prevaricator was a vet scratch July 11 from a maiden-20K; Sweet Sense has worked well for her comeback. She runs well fresh.

The bottom line is that this maiden-40K looks wide-open. A bettor who goes five deep in the first leg will not have much wiggle room later. Perhaps the pick six is too tough to play Thursday.

TURF ROUTE, race 5

A maiden-40K starter allowance at a mile on turf includes favorites Lakota Road and Hanserella. Both are stuck at the level, having lost four straight vs. similar. Their speed figures are just okay but offer no significant advantage.

Coconut Cream Pie is sharp but best around one turn. Her last-out maiden-sprint win compares favorably, and she could win. But she would be more attractive if this was a sprint.

The knockout is a 15-1 maiden. Fable finished fifth in a special-weight route that was her first start in four months. Her numbers put her in the hunt. Notwithstanding the pick six, Fable is an interesting straight play at double-digit odds.

MILE SPEED, race 6

After six straight wins by front-runners/pace pressers, a one-mile Polytrack race was finally won by a closer Wednesday. That was Dublin Dancer in race 6.

If the bias returns Thursday, you’d have to respect 6-1 Meringue Pie. He probably will make the lead. And he perked up in his most recent work. True, he lost three straight at this class level (bottom claiming, non-winners of two), but he could get brave.

The only route race that will be run prior to the pick six (races 4-9) is a one-mile race that is race 3. If that race suggests that the speed profile has returned, Meringue Pie is a must-use.

This handicapper’s top choices are class-drop comebackers Counting Days and Perfect Set. They are obvious, ordinary, vanilla.

SINGLE, race 7

Tiz Point is the 7-2 favorite. He won his last two at Golden Gate, earning 80-plus Beyer Speed Figures in both wins. He was claimed from his most recent win by Jerry Hollendorfer and fits perfectly for a $32,000 claiming tag.

A bullet workout July 18 at Del Mar suggests that Tiz Point maintains his form. Economy-size pick six tickets will consider Tiz Point as a single.

However, Emerald Downs shipper Mike Man’s Gold is interesting. He lost to a good veteran dropper last time at Emerald and will make his first Del Mar start for trainer Vann Belvoir, who is 3 for 8 at the meet.

MARATHON, race 8

Mambo Man is 7-2 in this 1 3/8-mile turf marathon. It is a condition he won twice already. He entered Thursday for the $40,000 optional claiming tag.

One knock on Mambo Man is that his July 18 work was unimpressive, according to National Turf. Other contenders include the lightly raced Money Clip, the distance-challenged Bench Light, and the in-form Hog’s Hollow.

MAIDEN FINALE, race 9

Positivo is the 3-1 favorite in this sprint for California-bred 2-year-old maiden fillies, $50,000 claiming. Her debut was better than the fourth-place finish suggests.

She broke slowly, rushed, chased, and missed by seven lengths at even money. She was claimed by Mike Puype and might only need a clean trip.

However, Puype worked Positivo in company with first-time starter Oh Dean. Guess who held the upper hand? According to National Turf, it was Oh Dean. Notwithstanding her obscure pedigree, Oh Dean appears live first time out.

Joe Talamo has been aboard Oh Dean in the morning. He rides the 6-1 shot in the finale.

The pick six Thursday is tough. It is too tough for me. Pass.