Free's preview: Time for 2-year-olds
Here come the 2-year-olds. They swamped the entries on Saturday at Del Mar, where a maiden special weight was split. It will be run as races 1 and 5. The same thing happened with fillies on Sunday, also split into two divisions.
The colts are first, after a quick note about the racing surface. A severe pro-inside bias emerged on Friday, and rail-skimming front-runners dominated. The upset win by My Fiona in the CTBA Stakes was remarkable in that she overcame early trouble and a wide trip against the bias.
Who knows how the track will play Saturday? You have been warned.
It is time to dive in.
SEVEN-FIGURE COLT, race 1
Iron Fist was purchased as a yearling for $1.55 million. He was sired by Tapit and is a sibling to Grade 1 Test winner Sweet Lulu. That is an outstanding pedigree, right? The colt will debut for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer as the 5-2 program favorite.
However, it would not be the worst thing if Iron Fist lost first time out, so long as he runs well. Five furlongs might be shorter than a son of Tapit prefers, even if his sibling was a sprinter that won her first four starts. A debut loss by the colt Iron First would allow Hollendorfer the luxury of running back against maidens, at a longer distance.
Furthermore, Iron First is not quick from the gate, according to National Turf clocker Andy Harrington. In his analysis of Iron Fist’s last three works, Harrington use the terms “one paced,” “not real quick,” and “slow to stride.”
Still want to bet Iron Fist at 5-2? Me neither.
Lord Nelson is a $340,000 yearling by Pulpit making his debut for trainer Bob Baffert with a series of good-looking workouts. He is the first foal out of a maiden dam, but his workouts reportedly are quicker than his rival. Lord Nelson is this handicapper’s top choice, albeit with little enthusiasm.
Assuming the Hollendorfer and Baffert trainees are overplayed, the value might be on the far outside. Ultra Sharp is a first-time starter by Sharp Humor, who now stands in Korea. His 2-year-old progeny have won five races this year; the colt’s workouts are sharp.
Ultra Sharp, purchased for $115,000 at Barretts in March, makes his debut for trainer Craig Dollase. Over the past two years, no trainer in Southern California has a better record with first-timers (all ages, class levels) than Dollase – 44 percent (11 for 25).
What is the bottom line? Ultra Sharp is the right play at 6-1.
$700K COLT, race 5
Bollywood was purchased as a 2-year-old for $700,000. He was sired by Bernardini and was produced by a Grade 1 winner. Good pedigree, right? The colt makes his debut for Baffert as the 5-2 program favorite.
But this race, a split of race 1, presents the same dilemma as earlier. It would not be the worst thing if Bollywood lost first out, if he runs well. He is bred for farther than five furlongs. As for the bottom side of his pedigree, his Grade 1-winning dam’s first foal foals were very ordinary. Bollywood’s works are okay. Only okay.
Bollywood is this handicapper’s top choice. Whoopee-doo, at 5-2.
John Sadler has a bunch of 2-year-olds to start this summer; Bench Warrant is his first. A $110,000 Barretts purchase, his sire Street Boss already has three 2-year-old winners this year from just six starters. Bench Warrant is working like he means business. At 6-1, he might be worth a wager.
Bold Bid is a second-time starter that misfired first out. According to trainer Peter Miller, breathing and foot problems contributed to his last-place finish. Expect improvement.
It’s a tough race, though perhaps not as strong as race 1.
SADLER LIVE, races 2, 5, 6, 11
Trainer John Sadler entered the meet with 382 wins at Del Mar, fourth all time. Sadler trails Mike Mitchell (476), Ron McAnally (439) and Bob Baffert (410). Sadler has led the Del Mar standings three of the past six years, and you’d have to consider all four of his starters live on Saturday.
Moscato Girl is 5-1 in the second race. She has one win from 11 starts, and repeatedly falls short of expectations. However, her presence in this filly claimer makes sense. It is not a strong race.
Bench Warrant is the live first-time starter in race 5, mentioned above. He is 6-1 in the program. That is an attractive number.
Beatrice makes her U.S. debut in race 6, a restricted stakes for fillies and mares. A Group winner in Europe, she is the class of the field at 3-1. She is the most probable winner, at minimal value.
Bijoux in race 11 will make her first start since a runner-up sprint debut in October. She returns in a one-mile maiden race on turf. Another Sadler comebacker, she is 6-1. Do not count her out.