Free's preview: Tactical speed dominates early meet

LOS ALAMITOS – After 16 races and two days of racing at Los Alamitos, this much is clear – closers are up against it.

Although the new stretch at Los Alamitos is the longest in North America, more than a quarter-mile, horses with tactical speed have won just about everything.

Only two races were won by a horse positioned more than two lengths off the pace at the head of the lane. Only four were won from more than one length off the lead.

Statisticians might say a 16-race sample is too small to form a conclusion, and they could be right. Furthermore, two of the three highest-odds winners were closers – $44 Regally Soul rallied from 4 1/2 lengths off Thursday, and $22 Amina Perfect also rallied from 3 1/2 lengths off Thursday.

Let’s see what happens Saturday when Candy Boy tries to run down Shared Belief in the longest race of the meet – the $500,000 Los Alamitos Derby at 1 1/8 miles.

Races 1, 5, 6, 9: Hot trainer

Trainer Phil D’Amato is red-hot.

D’Amato won four races June 29, closing day at Santa Anita. It continued a streak that began June 14 when Obviously won the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. From that day forward, D’Amato is 9 for 16.

On Saturday at Los Alamitos, D’Amato might keep the streak alive.

Oeighter (race 1) adds blinkers after a respectable fourth last out on grass. She switches to dirt and is the horse to beat. She is 5-2, and her backers must hope the blinkers put her closer to the pace.

Sudden Rumor is the D’Amato starter in race 5. He represents a wake-up play in the $25,000 claimer, non-winners of two. But his speed figures are low. He is 4-1.

Prontezzo is a D’Amato first-time starter in race 6. She has good works and was sired by the win-early stallion Exchange Rate.

Lucky S. J. is another D’Amato first-timer in race 9. The 4-year-old filly might be in tough. She is 6-1. But the way D’Amato is going, you can’t throw out any of his runners.

Race 2: Curious drop

Queen of the Hill is either the biggest standout Saturday or the worst bet on the card. Take your pick.

She was claimed for $8,000 in April by Doug O’Neill and promptly won a $14,000-$16,000 claiming race by more than seven lengths. She misfired on turf, then returned to form finishing second in a statebred allowance. In her most recent start, another statebred allowance, she broke slowly and finished fourth.

The question Saturday is: Why is she back in for an $8,000 tag?

She is an easy one to take a stand against as the 9-5 favorite. But if she romped, would you be surprised? Me neither. I picked her.

Race 3: Bias bet-against

Got Even might win the mile allowance – or he might find the new surface at Los Alamitos less flattering to his style than Santa Anita.

Got Even set a fast pace last time at Santa Anita and wired the field. If he runs as well at Los Alamitos, the race is over. However, even though tactical speed held the edge at Los Alamitos the first two days, only one race was won by the pacesetter. That was a 2-year-old maiden sprinting five furlongs.

Win or lose, this handicapper will be taking a stand against Got Even if he starts at a short price. He is the 8-5 favorite. Maybe this time he will get worn down by I Don’t Care Who.

Race 8: Champion returns

Shared Belief at 4-5?

The 2-year-old champion of 2013 makes his second start of 2014 in the $500,000 Los Alamitos Derby. Yes, he should win.

But he has only one sprint prep under his belt.

He is racing for the first time on dirt.

He is racing beyond 1 1/16 miles for the first time.

And the pace should be quick.

Shared Belief should win.

But backing him at 4-5 is just plain crazy.

And yes, I picked him.