Free's preview: Surface adds to pick six puzzle

DEL MAR, Calif. – Three weeks into Del Mar (14 racing days), pick-six carryovers are routine. The pick six has carried six times, including a $195,206 carryover to Wednesday.

Week 1 (four racing days) generated one carryover, Week 2 (five days) generated two carryovers, and Week 3 (five days) produced three carryovers. It is somewhat surprising considering favorites won 35 percent (15 for 43) in Week 3.

The racing program was bogged down by the suspension of turf racing Aug. 1 through Aug. 8. Turf racing is scheduled to resume Saturday, Aug. 9. Fingers will be crossed.

On the main track, unusual weather created fluctuating bias. The surface was fair Wednesday, July 30 following application of wax. But humidity and rain created an inside bias Friday and Saturday, Aug. 1-2. On Sunday, Aug. 3, the bias changed from rally-wide early on the card to, probably, a fair surface later on the card.

It’s tricky stuff, this weather-sensitive Polytrack. Next summer, it is back to dirt.

As for the jockeys, the surprising meet leader is Kent Desormeaux with 13 wins from 58 mounts. His 22 percent win rate also is highest of the meet. Meanwhile, the circuit’s top rider Rafael Bejarano is gaining momentum.

Bejarano, sidelined from late May until July 17 opening day of Del Mar, won six races last week, more than any rider. He has climbed to third in the standings. It won’t be long before he back on top, possibly by the end of the week.

That is enough background. It is time for a look at three legs of the Wednesday pick six.

SPEED-FIG DEFICIT, race 3

Oh Deann is the slowest horse in the field in race 3, a starter allowance for 2-year-old fillies. Her debut Beyer was a mere 34. All five rivals have run faster.

However, speed figures only get a handicapper so far, and pick six bettors must check out the video (Del Mar, July 24, race 9). Oh Deann overcame a trip that might have led to her defeat. In tight quarters inside, shuffled back, split horses and won going away.

It was not a brutal trip. It was not a good trip. It was a win by a filly that probably is better than her figure suggests.

Doug O’Neill claimed her for $50,000 and wheels her back in two weeks.

Most pick six tickets will use favorite Champion Risk. Her 58 Beyer stands out. She was claimed from her $50,000 maiden-claiming win by Tim Yakteen, from O’Neill, and her 35.80 workout on July 31 was given a positive review by National Turf clocker Andy Harrington.

Champion Risk might be the speed of the field. There have been nine races this meet for 2-year-olds at 5 1/2 furlongs. Three were won by the pacesetter.

Only one 2-year-old this summer has won a 5 1/2-furlong race by rallying from more than 2 1/2 lengths off the pace. That was Oh Deann, who overcame a five-length deficit.

Better than looked? Better believe it.

SURFACE DILEMMA, race 7

Form established on dirt does not always transfer to Polytrack.

Everyone knows that, right? This summer, the move has been abrupt. For the first time, there was no Cushion Track at Hollywood Park to provide a transition from Santa Anita dirt into Del Mar synthetic.

Instead, it was Santa Anita/Los Alamitos dirt, suddenly straight to Del Mar synthetic.

That move has not worked for many, including 2-year-old colts Bad Read Sanchez and Story to Tell. They were good horses on dirt in early summer. But both worked poorly on Polytrack, and both disappointed in the Best Pal Stakes on Sunday.

Does the same fate await 2-year-old filly Caval? She is 5-2 second favorite Wednesday in the Sorrento Stakes, based on a highly rated debut victory June 19 on dirt . But her most-recent workout on July 31 was disappointing, according to National Turf.

This handicapper tabbed Caval as “most probable winner” Wednesday. After the workout analysis, it would be nice to have that back. Still would have picked her on top, but without the “best bet” designation.

La Grange earned a 78 Beyer winning the Cinderella Stakes at Los Alamitos. After the race, her connections said they believed she would improve on dirt after an okay runner-up debut on synthetic at Arlington Park.

That is fine. But now La Grange is back on synthetic. Put a question mark on her, also.

Sunset Glow is the 2-1 favorite based on form at Presque Isle, Belmont Park and Ascot. Now she shows up at Del Mar. What’s next – Japan? The thing is, Sunset Glow has worked well on the Del Mar Poly.

Conquest Eclipse also has trained well on Poly.

What is the bottom line? The Sorrento is a lot more wide open than this handicapper originally believed.

TRIPS PLAY, race 8

Bar Car is 6-1 making the second start of her career in this maiden-20 sprint. Her third-place debut was better than it looks. Check out the video (Los Alamitos, July 10, race 4). She was off slow, made a wide move, flattened out late.

If she handles synthetic, she should outrun her price.

But that is a great, big “if.”

Some dirt horses handle synthetic. Others do not.

Polytrack is a mystery.