Free's preview: Speed holding in routes

Thursday, June 26, preview

ARCADIA, Calif. – The final week of the Santa Anita meet begins Thursday, and Los Alamitos opens July 3. In the meantime, the Santa Anita card Thursday merits scrutiny.

It is worth noting that two-turn speed on the main track has been downright powerful – 21 of the 24 races at one mile have been won by a horse positioned within two lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. Ten were won in gate-to-wire fashion.

At 1 1/16 miles, the bias became pronounced over the past three weeks, with 11 of the 12 races won from within two lengths. Bettors who like deep closers on the speed-favoring racetrack must insist on high odds. Late runners have simply not been getting it done.

RECENTLY GELDED, race 2

Yard Line is 6-5 to win the one-mile maiden race. After losing three in a row as the favorite, he is hardly invincible. Sing With Bling is quick enough to set the pace while stretching out for the first time. If the bias continues, 5-2 odds might be okay.

Bettors seeking value should at least consider 4-1 Missing Groom, who improved last out in his first with blinkers. Was it the hood or a change not seen in his past performances?

Missing Groom’s runner-up finish against statebred company last out was his first since he was gelded. It is the ultimate, and “hidden,” equipment change. New rider Elvis Trujillo has been getting speed from his mounts, and if the 4-year-old takes another step forward while moving up to face open company, he has a shot to upset.

For the record, this handicapper picked Yard Line. It’s a wimpy selection, to be honest.

CLASS STANDOUT, race 3

Is 8-5 favorite Customer Base a standout in the first leg of the pick six? Yes. She is a potential single in the $75,000 Possibly Perfect Handicap.

After all, Customer Base faced graded stakes company in six of her last seven starts. She won a Grade 3 in December and then had trouble her next three starts. She was caught wide Feb. 17, blocked through the lane April 13, and outclassed May 26 in a race that did not set up for her kick. On Thursday, the 5-for-21 graded winner faces easier.

The morning line suggests that the 1 1/2-mile filly-mare turf race is a two-horse contest – expected pacesetter Changethechannel is a close second choice at 9-5. This handicapper believes there is a wider gap in ability. Based on class, Customer Base stands out.

BABY FILLIES, race 4

Free Flying Soul was a four-time stakes winner for owner Marsha Naify and trainer Bruce Headley before she retired in 2010. She won six races and $423,177 from 18 starts.

The first foal out of Free Flying Soul makes her debut in race 4, a five-furlong sprint for maiden 2-year-old fillies bred in California. Soul Flyer is a daughter of Bertrando trained by Julio Canani, and she meets a soft bunch.

It has been an uncharacteristically slow season for Canani, with just three wins this year from 45 starters. Perhaps a good, young prospect can turn things around.

Soul Flyer has a series of very sharp works and gets in light under apprentice Drayden Van Dyke. At odds of 7-2, Soul Flyer might be worth a gamble.

The 3-1 program favorite is Sweet Mz. Poppet, whose 32 Beyer in her runner-up debut looks right. The filly who beat her by more than four lengths, Robo Girl, returned Sunday to get dusted in the Landaluce Stakes.

On paper, it appears that first-timer Haaay Sexy Lady, 9-2, has worked well. But her works might not be as good as they appear. Her 47.60-second gate work June 8 was actually 48 and change. Furthermore, her sire, Desert Code, is 1-for-18 with first-timers. It is always a risk to knock an unraced prospect, but there it is.

The bottom line: Soul Flyer might be a good thing.

SUNDAY ON THURSDAY, race 6

Sunday Rules earned the highest Beyer of any 2-year-old during the 2013 summer meet at Del Mar – an 87 in a romp in the Generous Portion Stakes on Aug. 28. It was her last start. On Thursday, she returns as the 8-5 favorite in a first-level allowance.

“Her last breeze said, ‘Hey, I’m ready,’ ” trainer Phil D’Amato said. “That gave us the green light to enter. She went 58 and change and just galloped through the stretch. Her gallop-out was great; she did not work that well last summer at Del Mar.”

The race got softer with the scratch of stakes winner Rovenna, but impressive maiden winner Classy Ava is drawn outside Sunday Rules and will give the favorite a battle. Sunday Rules is 8-5, and Classy Ava is 7-2. Their odds are likely to be closer together.

This handicapper’s choice is Sunday Rules. But if there is a discrepancy in price, there’s nothing wrong with backing the second preference.

D’Amato already is looking forward to Del Mar with Sunday Rules. “This will be a good steppingstone to the Fleet Treat,” he said. The $100,000 Fleet Treat for statebred 3-year-old fillies is July 26. “Seven furlongs will be even better for her,” he added.