Free's preview: Small fields full of short prices

Small fields and short prices are underlying themes Sunday. Only 62 horses are entered in nine races. Average field size is 6.8 per race.

It is tough to find overlays in small fields. It will be more difficult Sunday because many favorites look solid. Ten days into the new meet, favorites have won 26 of 89 races (29 percent). Dirt favorites are 18 for 54 (33 percent); turf favorites are 8 for 35 (23 percent).

The win rates are likely to increase Sunday, when a conservative strategy might be a horseplayer’s safest approach. Another option is not to play at all. Below is a look at the “safe” selections.

Fasten your seatbelt

It is only coincidence that the most likely winner of race 2, an N3X turf sprint, is named Safety Belt. Group 1 placed in South America and now trained by Ron McAnally, he moves up in class after a visually impressive win last month over the downhill course.

Safety Belt had everything go wrong in his U.S. debut (stumbled, grabbed quarter, bled). His second U.S. start was outstanding. He showed increased speed to be forwardly placed, waited behind runners in the lane, then burst clear. Good win, good number (93 Beyer), validated when fourth place A Toast to You returned Thursday to win a $50,000 claiming race.

The turf sprint Sunday in which Safety Belt is the 5-2 favorite is short on speed. Safety Belt should be on top of modest splits. And he should win.

Mensa society

Smart people with high intelligence quotients (IQ) join Mensa International. The rest of us are horseplayers, and you don’t have to be a genius to find the likely winner of race 6.

Mensa Heat is the 7-5 favorite in the $8,000 claiming route. A 10-for-59 veteran, Mensa Heat’s second-place finish last out vs. similar was validated Friday. Fit to Rule, who defeated Mensa Heat by a half-length, stepped up to win a $12,500 claiming race.

That flatters the form of Mensa Heat, an 8-year-old former sprinter who runs long at the bottom class level. But there is a potential knock. Mensa Heat is likely to be positioned mid-pack in the mile dirt race. His style does not fit the profile.

Every dirt-mile winner the past six weeks either set or pressed the pace.

Get-out: Chalk or bomb?

The last race of the week is the get-out race for horseplayers who are “stuck.”

Perhaps a longshot is lurking in the turf sprint for California-bred maidens. That does not appear the case. Second-timer Diablo Caballero should be long gone as the 5-2 favorite.

Eric Kruljac trains Diablo Caballero, a Tribal Rule gelding whose debut was super. He set a fast pace, led to the eighth pole, and was overtaken late. He finished fourth, missing by only two lengths.

Diablo Caballero is fast enough to clear, his rivals are not quick, and he should be gone.

But wait. Maybe there is a longshot. It takes imagination.

Warren’s Sunny Boy is a second-start maiden. That can be a useful angle.

Warren’s Sunny Boy is a first-time gelding. That can be a useful angle, too.

Warren’s Sunny Boy is a son of Affirmative trained by Jorge Gutierrez, switching to turf. He would not be the first Affirmative maiden to upset in his turf debut for Gutierrez. Warren’s Flasher ($20.80) and Warren’s Skate ($17.60) were Affirmative progeny who scored maiden turf upsets for Gutierrez and owner-breeder Ben Warren.

The last race of the week looks like chalk. But for bettors who are stuck, 30-1 on Warren’s Sunny Boy might be too tempting to pass.

Spot plays

Race 9
DIABLO CABALLERO (#2, 5-2) showed high speed in his debut and tired to fourth. Second time out, he should be long gone at low odds.

Race 9
WARREN’S SUNNY BOY (#6, 30-1) has been gelded since raced, he is bred for turf, and his trainer has a history of upsets with similar Affirmative progeny. His debut was dreadful, but there are longshot angles in his favor.