Free's preview: Sistas Stroll shows strong maiden win
DEL MAR, Calif. – The Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks is the highlight of an interesting Saturday card at Del Mar. Time for a sneak peak.
Race 2: Shipper strength
How would you know if the Kentucky maiden race Sistas Stroll won last out was a good race or otherwise? The obvious answer is by using DRF’s Formulator.
Sistas Stroll won race 4 on June 29 at Churchill Downs. Neither of the two other fillies in her past-performance company line has italics indicating she won next out. By poking around Formulator and pulling up the race chart of Sistas Stroll, the competition comes into focus.
The fourth- and seventh-place finishers both won their next starts, as indicated by italics. Click on the names of Tempers Flair and Holiday Stroll, and the past performances of those fillies show they won maiden special-weight races at Ellis Park.
Tempers Flair and Holiday Stroll are the only two next-out winners. But click on the name of the runner-up Engaginglee, and her past performances show she finished second in her next start at Saratoga.
The maiden race won by Sistas Stroll was a good maiden race. She is 4-1 on the morning line.
As for the 5-2 favorite Kadesha, she finished fourth last out in a first-level allowance. The race was “live,” with three next-out winners in the field. Kadesha finished fourth in a live race.
Race 3: Lone speed?
Pace plays offer the most value when the pacesetter is overmatched or inconspicuous. So-called “outclassed” frontrunners often get minimal wagering respect. Bettors expect they will stop. Sometimes, they do not stop.
As for frontrunners that are not obvious, the 12-1 outsider Grand Humor might be that type in race 3. He is the only true frontrunner in the maiden-40 starter-allowance sprint. Last time, he broke from the rail, got into trouble, and misfired.
On Saturday, he moves from the inside post to the outside and meets a similar field without pace. It is possible that Grand Humor has gone off form. But it also is possible he will clear the field and race gate to wire.
Probably won’t be 12-1.
Race 6: Futurity last call
It is getting late in the season to make the Del Mar Futurity. If there are any hidden Futurity hopefuls, they must surface Saturday. After that, it will be too late.
Kantune is the 3-1 favorite off a good runner-up finish July 19 behind Futurity candidate Lord Nelson. A good effort by Kantune would validate the maiden win by Lord Nelson.
But a first-time starter Saturday offers appeal. He is 8-1 Pappou. A good effort by Pappou would validate the form of Futurity candidate Bench Warrant. How can that be? Pappou has never started.
It is because Pappou has worked in company with stablemate Bench Warrant. That colt’s July 19 debut win earned him a Futurity berth. The fact trainer John Sadler worked Pappou in company with an established winner suggests he has a good line on Pappou.
Pappou, by Tapit, should come out running under Drayden Van Dyke. If he does, he can upset at 8-1 and run himself into Futurity consideration.
After all, in the Futurity, someone has to finish second behind Om.