Free's preview: Rail draw isn't a bad thing
Thursday, Aug. 7, preview
DEL MAR, Calif. – The carryover pick six was hit Wednesday at Del Mar. Four tickets each returned $199,296. Back to nuts and bolts, and time for a look at the Thursday card.
RAIL OKAY, race 1
The rail is the worst place from which to begin a sprint, right? Not at this meet.
In fact, the inside post has produced a higher percentage of sprint winners than any other post. Through Thursday, 20 percent (15 of 74) of all sprints had been won by a horse breaking from the inside post.
It is true that many of those rail winners benefited from bias. Inside-speed biases at this meet have been unusually frequent, although the track played fair Wednesday.
The pro-inside trend has been particularly keen at six furlongs – 29 percent (8 of 28). Race 1 on Thursday is six furlongs for California-bred maidens, $50,000 claiming. City Ride, post 1, was tabbed the “most probable winner on the card” by this handicapper.
City Ride is trying synthetic for the first time and dropping in for a tag for the first time. She is far from a slam dunk, but if the pro-inside trend continues, at least post will not get her beat. City Ride is the 5-2 program favorite.
BET DOWN, race 1
There are reasons why first-time starter Easter Fever is likely to be bet down in race 1. Those include two sharp recent workouts and a trainer-jockey combination that has won more races this summer than any other combo.
Bob Hess Jr. and Kent Desormeaux have combined to win 5 of 21 while producing a $2.33 return on investment (for each $2 win bet). Easter Fever was sired by Stormin Fever, whose progeny have won only 7 percent of their debut races. However, the filly’s two most recent workouts were particularly sharp.
Easter Fever is “live” first out. Wondering about her name? Easter Fever, by Stormin Fever, was foaled April 8, 2012 – Easter Sunday.
DOUBLE TEAM, race 3
Trainer Doug O’Neill entered a pair in race 3, an $80,000 maiden-claiming sprint for 2-year-olds. They are Domingo Cat at 9-2 and John’s Success at 5-1. Domingo Cat appears to have trained well for his debut, including a 35.80-second gate work four days ago. You’d have to think that was a speed-sharpening work intended to generate zip.
As for John’s Success, he has something his stablemate does not: racing experience. John’s Success finished fourth in his debut but since then has trained exceptionally well. It makes sense. He was sired by Colonel John, a notoriously low-percentage debut stallion (7 percent) whose progeny frequently improve with racing.
You’d expect John’s Success also to improve with racing. What is the bottom line? Bettors using one of the O’Neill trainees probably should also use the other. It appears that Domingo Cat and John’s Success both are “live.”
LOW-PERCENTAGE SIRE, race 5
The 2-year-old maidens racing for a $40,000 claiming tag in race 5 look soft. Three who have run have not run well; five first-time starters do not appear to have worked that great.
It is a lesser-of-evils race in which it is easy to knock every starter, including the 5-2 favorite. Wildling is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. That has been among the most productive trainer-jockey combos in California over the past year.
What is the knock on Wildling? He was sired by Sweet Return, whose progeny are 1 for 40 first time out, according to Thoro-Graph. Yikes.
GOOD “CLAIM,” race 6
Polytechnicien was 8 when he went through the ring at the Barretts January mixed sale this year. His best days were behind him. A former European runner by Royal Academy out of a sibling to Grade 1 winners Dare and Go and Go Deputy, Polytechnicien was being sold through a dispersal of the Wertheimer family stable.
O’Neill took a chance on the veteran, previously trained by Richard Mandella. Through his agent, Steve Rothblum, O’Neill purchased Polytechnicien for $17,000. It turned out to be a bargain.
Polytechnicien has won two races and $57,900 since the sale and will be among the favorites to add to the total in race 6, a $25,000 claiming race at one mile. Polytechnicien is the 7-2 second choice behind the dropper Tribal Jewel.
With 10 evenly matched starters, race 6 is the best betting race on the card. Contenders include Shun, a Kentucky shipper for the Hess-Desormeaux combo, and 8-1 Carlot Cowboy. He stretches from a sprint to a route first off the claim by John Sadler.