Free's preview: Opening-day opportunities galore

Opening-day craziness, full fields throughout the program. It’s an appealing card on which to wager, and it is time to dive in. First post 2 p.m.

POST DILEMMA, race 1

One might think the outside posts are the worst for a one-mile race on the Del Mar main track. The run to the first turn is short, and horses breaking from the outside get caught wide. The draw compromises favorite Fit to Rule (post 10), right?

But in seven seasons on Polytrack, the outside post produced six winners from 57 races (11 percent). Maybe the outside is not so horrible, after all. (The best place to start a mile race? It is the rail, of course – 44 winners from 294 starters, or 15 percent.)

Post position is not the only handicapping challenge regarding Fit to Rule. He was claimed last out for $16,000 and drops immediately to $10,000. Not good. But he is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who named his first-call rider Rafael Bejarano.

As a matter of principle, one should be leery of claim-and-droppers at a short price. But in the first race of the 2014 summer meet, it almost looks like Hollendorfer is trying to kick-start the Bejarano comeback. Fit to Rule is the right horse. The knocks are outside post, dropping off a claim, and short price. Maybe it’s a pass race?

If also-eligible Barney Rebel gets in, do not sell him short at a giant price. He returns with the no-claim waiver, his works are good, he fires fresh, and he has run well over the track. It’s a crazy shot.

FORMULATOR ANGLE, race 2

Trainer Peter Miller will start a lot of horses this summer. Bettors looking for an angle could do worse than back Miller-trained maiden claimers.

The past five seasons at Del Mar, Miller is 26 for 86 with maiden claimers, a 30 percent win rate that produced a $2.40 ROI (return per $2 win wager). Furthermore, he is 14 for 35 with maiden claimers returning from a layoff of six months or more at all tracks.

It adds up to a trainer angle play on maiden-claiming comebacker Full of Spice. Good works, weak foes, speed, good price. Full of Spice is listed at 8-1.

HOT STABLE, race 3

Trainer Phil D’Amato has won with 11 of his last 20 starters. He starts Hail Mary in race 3, a second-level allowance for filly-mare sprinters.

Hail Mary scored a sharp comeback victory at Del Mar one year ago; her workouts are sharp this season, also.

She is not flattered by pace scenario, however. Hail Mary is a front-runner. So are Velvet Mesquite, Biorhythm and Kinz Funky Money. The race sets up for favorite My Happy Face, a closer. Still think Hail Mary can overcome the race shape and win first start back. Lately, D’Amato can do little wrong.

NEW TURF, race 5

It’s the first race of summer over the new Del Mar turf. Everyone wants to know – how will the grass play?

Here is a novel idea. Perhaps one should approach the new turf course as if it plays in favor of the best horse. No sense fretting over a factor (track profile) that is unknown.

Stoney Fleece won the second allowance condition two back; he is one of three horses entered for the optional $62,500 claim tag. Stoney Fleece also likes Del Mar. He won two of three starts on the Del Mar synthetic in 2011, blanked twice in 2012, and was 1 for 2 on the Del turf last summer.

Stoney Fleece is listed at 6-1. That is a good number. European import Kokaltash adds Lasix and has trained well for his U.S. debut.

Little Jerry might be worth a stab for hot trainer Richard Baltas. The gelding always acted like a better horse than his record. He returns from a layoff of more than three months, and should fire his best shot first start back. The outside post (11 of 11) helps his price.

As for the turf course profile, check back later. For now, the assumption is the best horse will win. If it is a “true” turf course – why wouldn’t it be? – that means class and late speed will be keys to success.

OCEANSIDE, race 8

Enterprising is favored to win the Oceanside Stakes, a restricted stakes at a mile on turf. He faced better early in the year and returns fresh for his first start in three months. The trouble with Enterprising is that he is always favored – five times in seven starts.

With some horses, value seems to be impossible. That is the case with Enterprising, who might win regardless. Underlays do win.

But two improving stretch-runners deserves as much attention. They are Argyle Cut and Texas Ryano.

Argyle Cut finished with a rush and galloped out super last time in his first try in Southern California. He can mow down the Oceanside field, unless Texas Ryano beats him to it. The latter is lightly raced, packs a monster stretch kick, and he will finish.

CRAZY HORSE, race 9

Passing Game pops up when no one is looking.

He won his debut at $43.60.

He was off six months, and won his comeback at $80.60.

Passing Game scored at $23.60 last winter, and one year ago at Del Mar he paid $74.20. Total win payoffs on the 4-for-19 gelding: $222.

He is 3 for 6 on synthetic, runs well fresh, likes Del Mar, and is listed at 20-1.

Passing Game probably is not good enough to beat Diamond of Blue. But when is he ever “good enough?”

Passing Game merits a straight wager, and is worth including in exacta/trifectas under probable winner Diamond of Blue.