Free's preview: New era offers new challenges

LOS ALAMITOS, Calif. – A new era in Southern California begins Thursday, when Los Alamitos opens for a two-week Thoroughbred meet bridging Santa Anita and the Del Mar meet, which opens July 17.

Los Alamitos is uncharted ground for horses and horseplayers. The racetrack has been expanded to a mile and has been open for training for months. But 2 p.m. (first post) Thursday will be the first time horses have raced over the new surface.

The configuration is unique. The turns are tight, a slight uphill-right curve at the 4 1/2, the three-eighths pole is smack in the middle of the far turn, and the 1,380-foot stretch is the longest in the country. The quarter pole is at the top of the stretch.

Will speed be as dominant as it was at Santa Anita? Will late runners appreciate the long stretch? Which post positions will fare best? Who knows?

Now is a good time for a Thursday preview. A bettor can enter the two-week, eight-day meet with preconceived ideas. However, one should be prepared to revise at the first clue.

Race 1: New beginning

Good thing only six horses entered the first race, a restricted $16,000 claiming race for fillies and mares. Mile races begin at the top of the first turn. It is reasonable to assume outside posts will be at a disadvantage.

Post might not matter in the opener due to the small field. The favorite is I’m No Patsy, stretching back to a route and breaking from post 3. She is relatively quick with decent dirt figures but faces pace rivals Bodie Girl and Mon Petite. If she slows down and avoids a duel, I’m No Patsy can win at 9-5. Big deal.

I’m No Patsy is owned by J. Paul Reddam, who lives nearby and is expected to be a major supporter of the meet. Reddam runners will be “live.”
If the favorite misfires or if closers appreciate the quarter-mile stretch, then 3-1 third choice Fiesta Express could get there. It’s her first start in two months. She will finish.

Race 2: First-timer odds

California-bred juvenile fillies race five furlongs in the second race. The track diagram at the top of the past performances is correct – a slight bend to the right at the 4 1/2. At that point, the track climbs uphill ever so slightly.

That point is where the smaller Los Alamitos oval turns left for bottom-level nighttime Thoroughbreds that race 4 1/2 furlongs.

Interestingly, Los Alamitos exercise riders have said horses actually enjoy running up the mild incline. The climb is not expected to influence the outcome, but again, who knows for sure?

Four of the 10 entrants are first-time starters, including two based at Los Alamitos. That brings us to the first handicapping “clue.”

Russ Hudak, former line-maker at Hollywood Park, is the Thoroughbred line-maker at Los Alamitos. He also is a morning clocker. Hudak has been clocking horses at Los Alamitos for months. A sharp handicapper with a good eye, Hudak has a good “read” on which first-timers have ability.

The first-timers regularly training at Los Alamitos are Jilly Juice and Brazilian Barbecue. Hudak lists Jilly Juice at 15-1. Apparently, she has demonstrated nothing special in her works. Brazilian Barbeque, however, is listed at 8-1 by Hudak. It is a middle-of-the-road number that hints at ability.

It can be risky to allow a line-maker to influence wagering decisions, but Hudak is sharp. His prices on Los Alamitos-based first-time starters will offer handicappers a gauge on their ability. This “clue” will be examined as the meet unfolds.

As for this handicapper’s top choice, she is Desert Thief, adding blinkers after a pair of thirds at Santa Anita. She is no great bargain at 5-2. She merely is the one to beat.

Looking for a knockout? Fortune’s Daughter, 10-1, might have run a lot better than the line looks in her debut. She broke well, was not asked for speed, dropped back, finished evenly, and galloped out with run. It looked like a mere prep. Her ability is unclear, but she might appreciate the long stretch and at 10-1 may be worth a stab.

As for favorite Sweet Mz. Poppet, she wheels back one week after a tiring third at Santa Anita. She was out-finished by two good fillies and probably facing easier Thursday. Her odds are too short to like.

One final note regards first-time starter Tatum’s Gold. She is owned and bred by Nick Alexander, whose stable has been on fire. During June, Alexander runners won six races from 11 starters at Golden Gate and Santa Anita. Tatum’s Gold is trained by Steve Miyadi.

Race 7: The bet

A field of 10 will race one mile in the $100,000 Bertrando Stakes, and the 5-2 favorite Storm Fighter is potentially compromised. He breaks from post 9 with a quick run to the turn. The “best horse” dropping from a Grade 2, he seems vulnerable from the outside.

No such post-position vulnerability for Spirit Rules, who drew the rail. Listed at 9-2, his challenge is distance. Spirit Rule, 4 for 11, is a sprinter. Thursday is a good time to wager that he can stay a mile. At 9-2, his price is generous.

Spirit Rules won a fast allowance last out, a race validated when runner-up War Academy returned to win. Spirit Rules has been working super over the Los Alamitos racetrack, including a surprising team work with stablemate Tiz a Minister.

Tiz a Minister is a deep closer. But in the June 22 workout, he broke off in front of Spirit Rules. The orchestrated workout apparently was designed to determine how well Spirit Rules could finish. The answer is very well.

According to line-maker/clocker Hudak, and the National Turf workout report, Spirit Rules caught Tiz a Minister in the six-furlong work and galloped out with run. Spirit Rules out-finished a finisher. It was a solid workout.

Spirit Rules might tuck into a cozy trip in the Bertrando, saving ground just off the speed. If he can stay a mile, which his work suggests he will, he can upset at 9-2.