Free's preview: Maidens in the middle of pick six

DEL MAR, Calif. – The pick-six carryover Sunday at Del Mar is $106,845. And you can already hear the grumbling – Del Mar buried both maiden races for 2-year-olds in the middle.

Betting action and physicality review will not be possible for pick-six bettors because the sequence begins a race earlier, in race 5.

So be it. The truth is that races 6 and 7 for juvenile maidens might include two of the most probable winners on the card, anyway. Now is a good time to take a look.

Race 6: Bred in California

At first glance, this six-furlong race for 2-year-old maidens bred in California looks impossible. Perhaps it is not.

Five of the 10 entrants are first-time starters. While the two Marty Jones-trained rookies appear interesting, Jones is not a guy who typically cranks them up. Furthermore, Lucky Mark and Tiz All That have been working in company. They reportedly have been inseparable.

Both are bred to win early. Lucky Mark was sired by Lucky Pulpit (12 percent debut winners) and is the first foal to start out of a stakes winning dam.

Tiz All That was sired by the young California sire Papa Clem, whose second crop is this year’s 2-year-old crop. Papa Clem is off to a promising start at stud, and his first-time starters frequently are ready to rip. His progeny have won first out at a 19 percent clip.

Maybe both Jones trainees are stone runners. If so, it seems unusual they would continue to work in company. You’d think maybe they would work with an established runner with proven form.

The Jones trainees are the second and third preferences. As for the horse that is one of the “best bets” on the card, he is a second-time starter that earned a whopping 34 Beyer Speed Figure in his debut.

Cardiac, by Papa Clem, worked well into his debut, but he landed the rail and broke slowly. That was that. He actually made a good run into contention, a rally that suggests he has more speed than he showed. Cardiac flattened out in the lane and finished fourth.

Cardiac is the first foal out of an unraced sibling to the stakes runners Tucked Away and Thermal Ablasion. Cardiac moves from post 1 to post 5.
With a clean start second time out, Cardiac could make 9-2 look like a gift – or at least, a pick-six single.

Race 7: Special-weight fillies

Russ Hudak makes the morning line at Del Mar and (daytime) Los Alamitos. When he establishes a first-time starter as the program favorite, it is with good reason. It is because he knows how well the horse has been working. He knows the horse is “live.”

Penny N Mitzi has been working well. A daughter of More Than Ready trained by Jeff Mullins, Penny N Mitzi reportedly is quick. Tyler Baze has been aboard her in the morning.

She is ready to roll, first out. The only knock is the low price. Hudak made her 3-1. But her rivals seem modest. And if Penny N Mitzi is as “live” as she appears to be, she won’t be 3-1 anyway. She will be closer to 8-5. And she might just be a pick-six single.