Free's preview: Hotshot 2-year-olds
Sunday, Aug. 24, preview
DEL MAR, Calif. – The 11-race Pacific Classic card begins an hour early Saturday at Del Mar. First post is 1 p.m. Pacific. Time to dive in.
Race 1: Hotshot 2-year-old
The preview breeze by Conquest Panthera at the OBS March sale is available online and worth checking out. The 2-year-old Kitten’s Joy colt breezed in 10 seconds, looked good doing it, and was purchased for $475,000 by Conquest Stables and trainer Mark Casse.
Conquest Panthera has continued to work well this summer at Del Mar and looks “live” at first asking in the opener. He is the 2-1 favorite. The last time Casse and jockey Mike Smith teamed with a 2-year-old, Conquest Misbehave returned $21.60 on Aug. 17. No such price here.
Second favorite Madiba probably is not his main worry, according to trainer Jerry Hollendorfer's comments in Daily Racing Form that suggested Madiba wants more ground.
Race 3: Hotshot 2-year-old (part 2)
Another preview breeze worth checking out was by One Gun, a Malibu Moon 2-year-old filly purchased at Barretts March for $475,000. She also worked in 10 seconds and also did it impressively.
That One Gun seems to have speed is no surprise considering her pedigree. One Gun is the first foal out of Necessary Evil, a speedball 2-year-old who won her first two starts in 2009, including a decisive win over males in the Grade 3 Hollywood Juvenile.
One Gun is trained by Simon Callaghan, who is looking for his first U.S. win with a debut 2-year-old. Based on the filly’s works this summer, One Gun could be the one. She is listed at 7-2.
The race 3 favorite is Make the Sun Shine, a runner-up twice. Perhaps the third time will be the charm, or maybe a good filly will beat her every time. The vote here is the first-time starter, One Gun.
Race 5: Obviously at 126
Obviously is fun to watch. He is pure speed and carries it two turns. At age 6, the gelding has never been better. He makes his third start of a deliberate campaign Sunday as the 7-5 favorite in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile.
It will be a surprise if he does not win the one-mile turf race for a third straight year. Obviously is the pace of the race, he has the highest speed figures, has trained super, and always runs well fresh. He is racing Sunday for the first time in more than two months.
Looking for a potential knock? Obviously will carry 126 pounds, an impost he carried twice previously in the United States. He lost both times. Those two races just happened to be the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 2012 and 2013.
At his morning-line price, Obviously would be a tempting straight bet. But his price is likely to be odds-on. He also is likely to end up in the winner’s circle. He is a fun horse to watch.
Race 9: Favorite buried
If he had drawn an outside post, Fed Biz might be a slam dunk in the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien at seven furlongs. He drew post 2, but the scratch of pole-sitter Diamond Bachelor means Fed Biz is now buried in the No. 1 hole.
If he was a front-running sprinter, Fed Biz might be a slam dunk regardless of post. But he is not a front-runner in sprints. He only makes the lead in routes. Fed Biz is the “best horse” and is 3 for 3 at Del Mar. But in order to win, he and jockey Martin Garcia must negotiate traffic.
Big Macher and Goldencents are the logical alternatives based on a six-furlong race one month ago. Big Macher has run well at seven furlongs, though not against the caliber he faces Sunday. Goldencents benefits from the longer distance, but his only win in his last nine starts was a bias-propelled victory in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last fall.
What is the bottom line? Perhaps the O’Brien will devolve into pure chaos. Bombs away?
Race 10: Smith holds Pacific Classic key
Game On Dude faces questions in the Pacific Classic. He is less consistent and often loses at low odds. At age 7, Father Time may have caught up to the $6 million gelding.
Shared Belief also faces questions. He has never faced older stakes company, nor has he raced 12 1/4 miles.
But whether you love Game On Dude and Shared Belief or plan to wager against both, one thing should be clear – the pace scenario benefits the favorites.
Game On Dude runs best when he sets or presses easy fractions. In the Pacific Classic, who goes with him? The only one who can is Shared Belief.
Shared Belief’s rider, Mike Smith, knows Game On Dude as well as anyone. He knows Game On Dude is tough when given an easy lead.
He also knows that Shared Belief has never tried 1 1/4 miles. Will Smith attack early and risk Shared Belief tiring? Or will Smith attack late and possibly allow Game On Dude and jockey Martin Garcia to slip away?
It’s an interesting race likely to unfold at a tepid pace that benefits the favorites. And ultimately, the outcome of the Pacific Classic rests on the shoulders of Hall of Fame rider Smith.