Free's preview: Heavy favorite in day's lone stakes

Compared to a day earlier, the Sunday card at Santa Anita is relatively quiet. A standout at a short price figures to win the stakes, and a frontrunner figures to win the only dirt route.

Desert Stormer Stakes

My Sweet Addiction appears to be a complete and total standout Sunday at Santa Anita, where she is the 2-1 favorite to win the $75,000 Desert Stormer Stakes, race 3.

Only five fillies and mares entered the six-furlong stakes, in which My Sweet Addiction is the controlling speed. The 2-for-3 filly’s only loss was her Feb. 13, 2013, debut in which she finished second behind subsequent Grade 1 winner Midnight Lucky. My Sweet Addiction has worked well for trainer Marty Jones and should be long gone.

Bettors looking to make a score are advised to lower their aim. Five-horse fields rarely offer value. At the spring meet, five races at six furlongs have been run with five starters or fewer. The highest payoff was $6.40; four others returned $5 or less.

Route speed in race 4

Speed has been deadly the past two weeks at 1 1/16 miles on the main track. Since May 30, the eight winners at the distance were positioned within one length of the lead after the opening half-mile. If the profile continues, draw a line through the closers.

If the profile continues, that means drawing a line through half the field in race 4. The closers are American Blend, Dry Summer, and Valley Cat. That leaves I Don’t Care Who, Tribal Jewel, and Got Even as frontrunners/pressers that suit the profile.

Tribal Jewel, the 5-2 favorite, is this handicapper’s top choice. I Don’t Care Who should have been given more attention, while Got Even would be the speed of the field if he breaks.

Spot play

Race 3
MY SWEET ADDICTION (#4, 2-1) should win the Desert Stormer Stakes. She is lone speed, working well, lightly raced, and fires every start. Come and catch her.