Free's preview: Frontrunners have been dominant

Dirt mile speed

Slow surface speed does not necessarily create a bias, and a series of frontrunning winners does not necessarily mean the track is speed biased. However, bias is always open to interpretation, and some could quarrel with the recent “bias-free” assessment.

One undisputable fact is that deep closers have not won their fair share of one-mile dirt races. Since the start of April, all 13 races have been won by frontrunners or pressers. The 13 winners of mile dirt races were all positioned within two lengths of the lead.

The profile will be tested Saturday in races 1 and 3 at a mile on dirt. Silk in Silver is odds-on in race 1. A frontrunner, he looks like the most probable winner on the card. He drops from maiden-40 starter to $12,500 claiming, non-winners of two, and should get a forwardly placed trip in a race unlikely to unfold at a fast pace.

Race 3, however, presents a different situation regarding pace. The $50,000 claiming race is filled with speed, top to bottom. The scenario seemingly benefits 5-2 favorite Valley Cat. A closer in a race loaded with pace, Valley Cat seems to be the right horse.

But the running style of Valley Cat is counter to the track profile. A closer has not won a mile dirt race since March 27, when Consecrate rallied from more than four lengths behind after the opening half-mile. So will stretch-runner Valley Cat overcome the profile? Even if he does, 5-2 sure seems like a mighty short price.

Will Kobe’s Back break?

The handicapping challenge continues later Saturday in the Grade 3 Lazaro Barrera. Kobe’s Back is either the cinch of the day, or he is a stone bet-against at 9-5.

Kobe’s Back is the best horse. His speed figures are highest in the field, he is a Grade 2 winner at Santa Anita at the Barrera seven-furlong distance, and he is facing allowance-caliber horses. But in four of six starts, Kobe’s Back has broken slowly. The trouble-prone colt did it again one month ago in the Grade 3 Bay Shore at Aqueduct.

He broke last, hit the gate, trailed, lost ground, and missed by only a half-length. He was best but got himself beat. In the month since, trainer John Sadler and starter Jay Slender have schooled Kobe’s Back repeatedly at the gate. If he breaks with the field in race 7, he should win.

Which way to lean? This handicapper will “single” Kobe’s Back but will not argue with anyone who leaned the other way.

Publicity corner

Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Victor Espinoza will sign California Chrome posters on a first-come, first-served basis Saturday at Santa Anita from noon until 1 p.m. in the East Paddock Gardens across from Champions Gift Shop.

Simulcast cherry pick

A cool thing about modern wagering is that action is not confined solely to one’s home track. And it is fun to cherry pick a stakes from the simulcast menu, such as the $65,000 Unbridled Sidney Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Point to the Wild was compromised by a bad trip last month, finishing fifth in a stakes at Keeneland after being blocked from the quarter pole to the eighth pole. She got clear too late, finished well inside, and was fourth across the wire. Point to the Wild is listed at 4-1 in the Unbridled Sidney (race 9). That is a betting number.

Spot plays

Race 7
KOBE’S BACK (#3, 9-5) stands out in this G3 sprint for 3-year-olds. All he has to do is break, which he did in his only previous start at Santa Anita. Low odds, likely winner.

Race 8
SWEET BOSS (#1, 7-2) goes route to sprint and faces a sharp claiming filly (Queen of the Hill) whose turf form is undetermined. If Queen of the Hill misfires on new footing, then SWEET BOSS could mow them down.