Free's preview: First baby race of season

Friday, April 25 preview

TWILIGHT RACING

First post Friday is 3 p.m., infield general admission and Gate 6-parking is free, and $2 rolling doubles (18 percent takeout) are back on the wagering menu. The Grade 3 Last Tycoon Stakes is race 4 on the eight-race Friday card.

BABY RACE

The first 2-year-old race of 2014 in Southern California is race 1 for California-bred fillies at 4 1/2 furlongs. Trainer Mike Harrington has the 2-1 program favorite, City Ride.

City Ride is one of only six entrants. The daughter of Southern Image (11 percent debut winners) is a sibling to two juvenile debut winners trained by Harrington. His five-year record with 2-year-old first-time starters is 13 percent (11 for 81) and a flat-bet profit.

The small field offers minimal value. Take Back Spring is a Spring at Last first-time starter trained by Doug O’Neill. She is the first foal out of O’Neill-trained 2-year-old stakes winner Repo. O’Neill’s five-year win rate with 2-year-old first-time starters is 14 percent (27 for 193); his return on investment for each $2 win bet is $1.78.

Bettors looking for a higher price might settle on 7-2 Robo Girl, who reportedly has shown speed in workouts. She is trained by Gary Sherlock, who won the first 2013 baby race one year ago at Hollywood Park when Pay the Debt returned $41.20.

FORMULATOR ANGLE

Race-3 entrant Magic Number, a $12,500 claiming filly, was claimed last out by Vann Belvoir. Rafael Bejarano rides. The past five years, according to Formulator, Belvoir is 5 for 10 first off the claim with Bejarano. Addendum is this handicapper’s preference.

GRADE 3 PREVIEW

Based on his troubled trip last out and a Grade 2 win over 3-year-olds last fall, Rookie Sensation is the right favorite to win the Grade 3 Last Tycoon, race 4. But his morning line of 7-5 is too short to back seriously.

The 2-1 second choice in the program is Jerry Hollendorfer trained Joelito, who was fully extended to win a N2X at a 1 1/8 miles two starts back. “I don’t know how much farther he wants to run,” assistant Dan Ward admitted.

Spring Up is interesting at 9-2. “He doesn’t have any bad races,” trainer John Sadler said. “We won a race with him [first off claim] on the synthetic at Del Mar, and I thought he loved the synthetic so much that I crammed him in one the last day. He didn’t do good.

"Other than that, on the grass, he’s been very steady.”

Sadler said his third-place finish behind Joelito two back came with an alibi - missed training caused by rain.

The bottom line is the Last Tycoon appears to be wide open. Rookie Sensation is the most probable winner, but the price is short.

BIAS ANGLE

A curious bias emerged as the winter meet came to end down last weekend. One-mile turf races were dominated by speed – six of the last seven won by the pacesetter. If the profile continues into the first day of the spring meet, the race-8 favorite might be a standout.

Kozani is fast, adds blinkers, drops from maiden special weight to maiden-50, and should control the pace. The outside post (10) is no bargain, but if he breaks he can be gone.

1 DOT, 2 G’S

Race-2 entrant Live Lucky is a “dot horse.” He is expected to scratch. Two first-time geldings run later – Truelee Scrappin in race 5, and Tiznow Or Then in race 7.

SPOT PLAY

Race 5

DUNMORE EAST (#2, 4-1) is first off the claim by top trainer Vann Belvoir, returning at the same level of his claim with a significant edge in recent speed figures. Doubt he will start at 4-1, but at 5-2 or higher the veteran gelding is worth a play.