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Saturday, June 14, preview

A pair of Grade 1 races offer intrigue Saturday at Santa Anita. The favorite looks solid in the Shoemaker Mile on turf, while the Vanity for main-track fillies and mares is more wide-open.

RELIABILITY AND CHAOS

The lowest class level in Southern California is $12,500 claiming, non-winners of two races. For some handicappers, the class level is inscrutable and therefore an appropriate spot to hit the “all” button. But is the level really that difficult? Perhaps it is not.

Brandon’s Princess is the 6-5 favorite in race 6, a $12,500 claiming race, N2L. She made a premature move last time, got the staggers late, and finished third. Claimed by Mark Glatt, she returns Friday with a new rider in Tyler Baze and superior speed figures.

She also has a recent trend supporting her. Since Dec. 26, at Santa Anita, favorites are 5 for 11 in $12,500 claiming races, N2L, fillies and mares.

SHOEMAKER SPEED

Obviously is the 9-5 favorite in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile as he tries to become the first repeat winner since Silic in 1999-2000. Based on his comeback victory, the gelding looks tough to beat despite the presence of a “rabbit” to soften him up.

Obviously was hounded through blazing fractions in a one-mile Grade 2 on May 17. He was pressured through an opening half in 45.55 seconds and six furlongs in 1:08.58. It did not matter. He put away his pace rival, opened up, and coasted home.

The presence of the Gary Barber-owned “rabbit” Pulpit’s Express might complicate matters. Barber also owns the stretch runner Jack Milton. But maybe the rabbit is a nonfactor. After all, a fast pace plays to the strength of Obviously. He wins races early, rather than late.

Pulpit’s Express, the winner of a California-bred allowance last out, will try to run early with Obviously. The ploy is likely to be futile.

It is debatable whether odds of 9-5 represent “value,” but let there be no mistake – Obviously is the horse to beat in a strong race.

VANITY SCRAMBLE

The second Grade 1 race Saturday is difficult. Let Faith Arise is the 2-1 favorite in the Vanity based on a March win in the Grade 1 Santa Margarita, a recent win in a Grade 3, and a versatile running style.

But the “most likely” winner is not invincible. Grace Hall makes her second start back following a layoff for trainer Bill Mott; Yahilwa gave Let Faith Arise fits last out before losing by a neck; Scherzinger stretches out with speed; Iotapa has the rail and speed; and Magic Union will roll late in a race that should unfold at a solid pace.

What is the bottom line? Let Faith Arise is the horse to beat, but the stretch runner Magic Union at 8-1 and the improving Yahilwa at 6-1 are worth price consideration.

FINALE CLARIFICATION

First-time starter Warrenscrystalized has worked well for her debut in race 9, a maiden turf sprint for California-bred fillies and mares. Trained by Jorge Gutierrez, she is 6-1 and this handicapper’s top choice.

Was it a mistake? Her sire is Affirmative, whose progeny rarely win first out. According to Thoro-Graph, Affirmative is 1 for 49 with first-time starters.

SPOT PLAY

Race 3
ANOTHER SKY (#5, 9-2) exploded last out. She scored a 5 1/2-length win in a $50,000 maiden claimer on turf. She has worked well since, has speed and versatility, and looks like a repeat winner moving up the ladder.