Free's preview: Favorite a good play in pick five

Pick five single

Odds-on favorites are useful for horizontal wagers. Although skeptical bettors are taught to avoid short prices, sometimes the only thing you are looking for is a winner – at any price.

Seeking the West fits the description in race 3 Saturday at Santa Anita, a first-level allowance at 1 1/16 miles. Only five entered. Only one has speed, the favorite.

Ron Ellis trains Seeking the West, who squandered an easy trip in a similar allowance last out at 1 1/4 miles. Favored at 8-5, he set soft fractions but was no match for winner Footbridge. Seeking the West finished more than three lengths clear of third.

The dilemma Saturday is if Seeking the West, 4-5 on the line, can be trusted. After all, he lost last time under similar lone-frontrunner conditions. Blame it on the distance – 1 1/16 miles suits him. Singling odds-on runners is hardly a creative wagering strategy, but sometimes the only thing you are looking for is a winner.

American underlay

The expected scratch of preliminary favorite Winning Prize from the Grade 3 American Stakes all but eliminated wagering value in the one-mile turf stakes. Obviously would have been worth a gamble at 9-5 on the original line. He is likely to start at odds-on.

Obviously is likely to win the race. However, odds-on is an unattractive price for a horse that has been off more than six months, regardless of how well he has been working. And make no mistake – the gelding has been super in training.

If there is an upset, it could come from the back of the field. Silentio is a Grade 2 winner and third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last fall. His comeback March 8 in the Grade 1 Frank Kilroe was a disappointing fifth-place finish at 7-2.

“It wasn’t an awful trip, but it wasn’t a perfect trip either,” trainer Gary Mandella said. “And I maybe didn’t do enough with him.”

Silentio only lost by two lengths to Winning Prize. Since then, he has trained well for Mandella. Upsetter? Maybe.

Overlooked contender

Occasionally a handicapper looks back on a selection and wonders – “What was I thinking?” Or, in the case of race 6 – “How did I miss that?”

Incline Village upped his game after trainer Brian Koriner switched him to the hill. A maiden win by more than five lengths preceded a sharp runner-up finish in a first-level allowance. He returns at the same condition and course Saturday.

Incline Village breaks from the advantageous outside post (9) with a pressing style and speed figures that make him a logical contender. Yet somehow, this handicapper failed to mention Incline Village among the top three selections.

Back to Bako is a deserving favorite, particularly after the horse he defeated (Boozer) returned to finish a decent second Friday. And comebacker I Earned It Baby appears to be “live” first start since September.

Bottom line – Incline Village should have been no lower than third choice. Mea culpa.

Spot plays

Race 9
DELTA FLOWER (#7, 4-1) won twice at Oaklawn Park, including a decisive win in a stakes for Arkansas-breds. She has been training well for her California debut for new trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and has an advantageous running style. She can fire first out in this sprint stakes for 3-year-old fillies.

Race 10
WARREN’S JEN FIZZ (#1, 5-2) is a deserving favorite in this turf sprint for California-bred maiden fillies. However, BEA’S BENCH (#6, 15-1) ran better than the line shows in her debut. She was squeezed and shuffled, rallied wide, and finished fourth. She moves up from maiden 50 to special weight state-breds, and is likely to outrun her odds.

Race 11
PRESIDING JUSTICE (#7, 8-1) had a sporadic work pattern into his winning debut Feb. 23. He was claimed by John Sadler and returns in a starter allowance from which he cannot be claimed. This time, his once-a-week work pattern is flawless. Off the pace and into the winner’s circle.