Free's preview: A closer look at pick six

A pick six carryover of $109,125 is up for grabs Sunday at Santa Anita. The sequence begins in race 4. Now is a good time for a closer look.

Hillside specialist

Race 4 is the first leg of the pick six and includes an old-fashioned handicapping angle – the downhill horse for course.

Jade With Envy, the 2-1 program favorite, has much going for her in the allowance sprint for California-bred allowance fillies and mares.

Freshened two months, with a history of firing off a layoff, working well, proven at the class, and with the highest recent figure (82 Beyer Speed Figure), she is a deserving favorite. The kicker is she might be better than her most recent start suggests.

During the Santa Anita winter meet, the downhill turf course became unusually speed biased. The bias was in full force in early April when Jade With Envy rallied from sixth to miss by a neck behind frontrunning winner Mark of a Gem.

Mark of a Gem was the 10th frontrunning winner from the previous 18 turf sprints. Jade With Envy, a closer, was running smack against the profile and fell short by a neck. Better than looked? You better believe it.

The good news for stretch-runners this meet is the downhill speed bias is gone. The course has played fair to all styles. When she starts favored in race 4, Jade With Envy might just be a pick six single.

Grade 1 claimer

Race 6 includes a rarity – a Grade 1-placed runner eligible to a $12,500 claiming starter allowance. At a mile on turf, the Solitaire Starter Handicap is restricted to horses that started for a claiming price of $12,500 or less since March 1, 2013. The conditions are ideal for the 9-5 favorite Soi Phet. He ran for a low claim tag March 10, 2013.

It almost seems that the starter allowance was written specifically for Soi Phet.

Leonard Powell claimed the gelding in May 2013. He immediately improved 20 Beyer points and won four straight. Powell ran him the Grade 1 Awesome Again in fall. He was no match for Mucho Macho Man, but Soi Phet finished third. In three starts afterward, Soi Phet was not competitive.
He was fifth in a Grade 3, fifth in a California-bred stakes, and sixth in a Grade 2. On Sunday, Soi Phet gets class relief in a starter allowance. But he also carries 129 pounds, seven more than his next rival.

“They must think my horse is Dr. Fager,” Powell told track publicity, regarding the weight assignment.

A return to form on the class drop could get Soi Phet back into form, but the now horse is moving the other way – up the ladder.

Husband’s Folly has been up and down the class ladder through 28 starts and ran twice last summer at the $12,500 claiming level. He has improved since.

Husband’s Folly, claimed off a smart win for $25,000, makes his first start Sunday for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. He is the 2-1 second choice.

Current form or back “class?” The edge goes to current form. Husband’s Folly is the right favorite. Pick six bettors probably will need to use both.

Bombs away

Two ingredients for a potential upset are present in race 7 – a vulnerable favorite and a high-odds runner with proper credentials.

The vulnerable favorite is Happy Idea, claimed for $25,000 from a win April 20. Trainer Bob Hess Jr. did not work him for nearly a month after the claim. He went a half-mile in 53.60 seconds May 15 and two weeks later another half-mile in 51. He’s coming off slow works, no recent racing activity, a new barn, and stretching to a seven-furlong distance he has never tried.

Happy Idea is a vulnerable favorite at 5-2. (Yes, he is the top choice of this handicapper.)

The longshot with credentials is 15-1 outsider Luca. He drew the rail and is unproven beyond six furlongs. However, the only time he ran at Santa Anita in an age-restricted starter allowance, he won by four. The claiming sprint he entered Sunday is restricted to 3-year-olds.

Luca also significantly drops in class, from a California-bred allowance against older into an age-restricted claiming sprint. Finally, he runs for a longshot stable. E.G. “Bill” Burnison is a 90-year-old businessman who dabbles in training with his assistant Tirso Limon.

Over the years, they have scored numerous upsets. Those include Collation ($60 and $38.40); Ata Atay ($35.20), the dam of Luca, and Ata Benchmark ($71.40) and $25.80).

Luca has won 2 of 5, meets easier Sunday, and is 15-1 on the morning line. He is a “just-use” at a giant price.

Crystal class

Another class-vs.-condition dilemma presents itself in race 8, the $100,000 Crystal Water for California-bred turf horses at one mile.

Ethnic Dance, winner of the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby last summer, returns from a nine-month layoff as the favorite. Two things are worth noting regarding Ethnic Dance. First of all, the Del Mar Derby last summer was split into two divisions. It was a diluted race, weaker than previous renewals of the Del Mar Derby.

The second factor regards John Sadler, trainer of Ethnic Dance. Sadler is among the top conditioners in Southern California, but his recent comebackers have not fired. None of his 16 recent comebackers (six months or more) has won. That is two strikes against Ethnic Dance. The final strike is price. At 5-2, he is no bargain.

Rousing Sermon has earned $735,092 winning 5 of 27. That tops the field. The knock on Rousing Sermon is that the Crystal Water will be his first start on grass. Can he win? Of course he can.

But the “now” horses are moving up the ladder after sharp efforts in optional claiming races. Mega Heat is 7-2, and Stoney Fleece is 9-2.

Mega Heat has won 8 of 16 and stretches out from a sharp runner-up finish in a turf sprint. Stoney Fleece was claimed for $62,500 last time, an optional claimer he won by a half-length.

If the class of the field wins the Crystal Water, look for Ethnic Dance or Rousing Sermon.

But if a “now” horse wins, then the Crystal Water likely will be won by either Mega Heat or Stoney Fleece.

Spot plays

Race 4
JADE WITH ENVY (#3, 2-1) ran well both previous starts on the hill and trained well since a better-than-looked runner-up finish in which she was compromised by a speed bias. She is a potential pick six single in the first leg of the sequence.

Race 7
LUCA (#1, 15-1) takes a massive class drop from N1X Cal-bred allowance into a claiming race for 3-year-olds. Trainer Bill Burnison has a long history of posting upsets.