Free's preview: Carryover kicks off week

YOU NEEDED SPEED

Tactical speed won nearly everything opening week at Los Alamitos. Although the quarter-mile stretch is the longest in North America, 30 of the 34 races were won by a horse within two lengths of the lead at the head of the lane.

The speed-friendly profile was particularly keen around two turns. All 12 route winners were forwardly placed. The only winner that rallied from more than two lengths off the lead was Alpha Bullet, positioned three lengths behind the pacesetter in race 3 on July 5.

The bottom line is that most opening-week winners were in contention at the top of the stretch. Most handicappers already have it figured out; favorites were 11 for 34 (32 percent).

Meanwhile, a pick-six carryover of $42,460 kicks off the Thursday program. Now is a good time to preview the sequence, races 3-8.

MAIDEN-20, RACE 3

The opening-week racing program was built around maiden races, which accounted for 16 of the 34 races. The trend continues in the first three legs of the pick six, all for maidens.

The comebacker Fast Mast is racing at the bottom level for the first time, but his main-track form is uncertain and trainer Mike Harrington is having a tough go. Since the start of May, Harrington is 2 for 66. His only winner was Swiss Peak on May 31 and June 13. Those were night programs at Los Alamitos.

Furthermore, Fast Mast is a closer over a track that rewards speed. In hindsight, Fast Mast might not have been a particularly intelligent selection by this handicapper.

Marv, who was entered not to be claimed via CHRB Rule 1634, is interesting. His most recent start was Dec. 6, but he may have run twice recently at Canyon Breeze Training Center (CBT) in Utah.

Unrecognized races were held at CBT on May 26 and June 27. Marv was entered in races both days, and posted the fastest workout time both days. In all likelihood, those workouts were unrecognized races.

This assumption is unconfirmed; official results are not available. Not that is matters. Marv has already proved his ability, finishing second in six of 11 previous starts in California. One of these days he will pop up and win a race locally. It could be Thursday.

MAIDEN-30, RACE 4

Papa’s Dancing is the 2-1 program favorite, and if she reproduces her most recent dirt sprint she should win. That was March 27 at Santa Anita, a third-place finish in her only start at the maiden-30 level. She was overmatched in two subsequent starts.

First-time starter Bar Car is trained by Eric Kruljac and will be ridden by Martin Pedroza, and is listed at 10-1. She is worth consideration at a price. Kruljac and Pedroza have combined for upset wins with first-time starters including Tiz Molly ($50.60) on Jan. 20, 2013 and Closer to Love ($28.20) on April 11, 2011. That nugget was gleaned from Formulator.

Comeback droppers Diamonds Dena and Bold Decision are questions, though the June 28 work by Diamonds Dena boosts her chances. She reportedly worked in company with stablemate Beach Fever, who finished third by 1 1/2 lengths in a maiden special weight on Sunday.

MAIDEN-50, RACE 5

This race for California-bred 2-year-old fillies is a trap. The familiar faces are weak; the first-time starters are dubious. The program favorite is Don’tmesswithness, whose last-start figure was a whopping 17 Beyer.

This handicapper’s one-two picks, with minimal confidence, are trained by Walther Solis. They are Wacky Miss and Wackett. Pick-six bettors might consider “all.” The race had nine entrants.

CLAIMING SINGLE, RACE 6

Musical Arts stands out in this sprint, for $12,500 claiming fillies and mares that have not won two races. How is it that a six-time winner is eligible for N2L? It is due to a clause in the conditions - “races for $10,000 or less not considered.”

Musical Arts won an $8,000 claiming race two back, and finished second last out in a $12,500 claiming sprint. Her speed figures tower over her rivals; trainer Ron Ellis started three horses opening week at Los Alamitos – two wins and a third.

Musical Arts probably will go to post much lower than her 2-1 morning line. It would not be a surprise to see her start at even-money or less. It would be a surprise if she lost.

TACTICAL SPEED, RACE 7

If the speed-friendly profile continues around two turns, then deep closers Tenkiller Kid and Dr. Spin will be up against it.

The profile benefits front-runner Goyan and within-striking-range Crusher. Those two will get first run into the lane in the $16,000 claiming route, N2L.

HONEST VETERAN, RACE 8

Senator Bob is sharp. He has won 2 of his last 7, has tactical speed, and earned figures that make him a proper choice. He also breaks from an outside post. That was an advantage opening week.

Seven of the 15 sprints (5 and 5 1/2 furlongs) were won by a horse breaking from one of the two outside posts.

A budget-conscious pick six bettor will consider Senator Bob as a potential single.

HORSES TO WATCH

ROPER

Trainer: Vann Belvoir

Last race: July 4, 1st

Finish: 2nd by a nose

Beyer: 55

This maiden 2-year-old, gelded since his debut, was tons best. Shuffled back into the turn under tentative handling, he saved ground and finished well. With better racing luck, he will be right there against California-bred 2-year-old maidens.

STARLET O’HARA

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Last race: July 4, 5th

Finish: 2nd by 1 3/4

Beyer: 55

This 2-year-old filly was fractious and had to be reloaded, broke last, and then finished with run. Her good debut flatters Luminance, a stablemate that had outworked ’O’Hara.

MY SLEW

Trainer: Victor Garcia

Last race: July 4, 6th

Finish: 2nd by 1

Beyer: 86

This honest gelding lost position early in an N1X/optional claimer, then rallied from last over a track on which it is difficult to close ground. He ran well the past two summers at Del Mar on turf and synthetic, and hits the meet in top form.

I DON’T CARE WHO

Trainer: Jeff Mullins

Last race: July 5, 3rd

Finish: 5th by 11 1/2

Beyer: 65

This $32,000-40,000 claimer was compromised by a speed bias June 15, and shuffled out of position in this race, which is a toss. He should rebound with a better trip. One knock is he finished off the board in four previous starts at Del Mar. The fair circuit beckons.