Free’s preview: Calif. shippers at Belmont today
The appealing Saturday card at Belmont Park includes six Grade 1s and several shippers from California that made their most recent start at Santa Anita. A quick review of the West-to-East shippers is in order. Normal local programming returns Sunday.
Calif. shippers, race 5
The Grade 2 Woody Stephens for 3-year-old sprinters includes three exiting the Grade 3 Laz Barrera at Santa Anita. That seven-furlong race May 10 was won by Top Fortitude. However, runner-up Tonito M. was best. He was shuffled back, lost position on the turn, and re-rallied by finish only a length and a half behind the winner.
Kobe’s Back ran flat. The pace was slow, but he never fired. Perhaps he can return to form if the Stephens pace comes up hot, but Kobe’s Back has yet to show the brilliance he displayed in February, or even last year as a 2-year-old.
Tonito M. is worth a wager at 20-1 on the line. He is training super for his second start in the U.S. after winning six of seven in Puerto Rico. However, a win by Top Fortitude or Kobe’s Back would be a surprise.
Calif shipper, race 6
Fashion Plate made her most recent start at Churchill Downs, finishing a distant 11th in the Kentucky Oaks. Since then, most of her training has been at Santa Anita. Fashion Plate is fast, and benefits from a cutback to a one-turn mile in the Grade 1 Acorn. But is she good enough?
The 3-year-old filly division this winter at Santa Anita was soft, and that is the context in which her back-to-back Grade 1 wins must be evaluated. From the inside post in a one-turn mile, it would be a shock if Fashion Plate could somehow win.
Calif. shipper, race 7
Beholder won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff last year, and trainer Richard Mandella believes she is bigger and stronger than she was as a 3-year-old. Her recent workouts support the notion. After an easy comeback win, she takes her show on the road Saturday and figures for a good trip in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps, pressing the pace outside, in the clear.
It is true the Phipps looks like a three-horse race between Beholder, Close Hatches, and Princess of Sylmar. But it will take a championship-caliber performance to beat Beholder. She is 7-5 on the morning line.
Calif. shippers, race 9
Scarly Charly won a maiden race last out at Santa Anita with a career-best 89 Beyer. There was nothing special about the maiden win. Now he shows up in the Grade 1 Met Mile. Pass.
Goldencents has not raced since Nov. 30 at Aqueduct, but he has been working lights out for his comeback. His trainer Doug O’Neill is holding a hot hand at Santa Anita (20 for 83, leading trainer). Goldencents is bigger and better than he was last year, based on his workouts. He is live, first start back.
Can a horse win the Met Mile making its first start of the year? Yes, Ghostzapper did it in 2005.
Calif. shipper, race 10
Rookie Sensation might just win the Grade 1 Manhattan, if he gets any racing luck. He had bad luck in his last two starts at Santa Anita.
Rookie Sensation was tons best March 15 in an allowance comeback, but was trapped and buried until the sixteenth pole. He unleashed a monster late kick, but missed by a head.
The same thing happened to Rookie Sensation April 25 in a Grade 3. Blocked until the final furlong, he swung out, kicked, and missed. He was best in both races.
Those two bad trips do not make Rookie Sensation a Grade 1-caliber turf horse, at least not yet. But he was a Grade 2 winner in fall, and more heavily backed in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby than Manhattan favorite Seek Again.
With a clean trip Saturday, California shipper Rookie Sensation can post an upset.
Spot plays
Belmont, Race 5
TONITO M. (#7, 20-1) was tons best in a Grade 2 last time, finishing second after being shuffled back on the turn. Since then, he has worked super. Upset potential.
Belmont, Race 10
ROOKIE SENSATION (#3, 12-1), Grade 2 winner last year, had two horrific trips in lower-class races at Santa Anita. He is unproven on class, but will be rolling late and acts like a mile and one-quarter will be perfect.