Free's preview: Another pick six carryover

DEL MAR, Calif. – The seventh pick six carryover from 19 days of racing is up for grabs Wednesday at Del Mar, where the meet has been more chaotic than usual. Favorites have won 26 percent on Polytrack, 20 percent on turf.

Summer gambling at Del Mar never is easy. Usually, it is not this tough. A challenging Wednesday pick six begins with a carryover of $171,914. Might as well take a look at the sequence.

GOOD CLAIMING ROUTE, race 3

If there is a toss in this $32,000 claiming route, he is not obvious. All eight entrants have a shot, including Grandstand, a comebacker whose works have been terrific. The knock on Grandstand is he has not started since November. At 10-1, does it matter?

Would You, Jomelo, and Little Jerry are this handicapper’s 1-2-3s, with minimal confidence. Little Jerry is a dropper whose rider is way overdue. Tyler Baze has gone two weeks and 41 mounts since his most recent win July 30.

Hurricane Lake is the 3-1 favorite, dropping off a claim for his first start in two months. Not a good pattern, but the veteran is a good horse. And he is 5 for 11 on synthetic.

The 1 1/8-mile race is a good individual race on which to gamble, but it is a nightmare for pick six bettors. Who wants to go eight-deep in the first leg? It might be the only way to play. An attempt to make a distinction between A’s, B’s, and C’s seems futile.

N2L TRAP, race 4

Six races at this meet have been run for $16,000 claimers, non-winners of two. It is the lowest class level (for winners) at Del Mar, and the races get trickier each week. Favorites are 0 for 6; winning payoffs continue to be high.

$16k claiming, N2L winners:
July 23: Winninginfashion, $8.40
July 24: Storm Comin Thru, $22.40
July 26: W. Giles, $39
July 27: Tim’s Go Girl, $10.80
Aug. 9: Heyyoucan, $49.40
Aug. 9: Sir Barclay, $11

Apparently, the class level is wide-open. Perfect Set is the 5-2 favorite based on a good third-place finish last out. He was claimed by Robertino Diodoro.

Tyler Baze rides a “live” mount in Goyan. First off the claim by Ron Ellis, he has trained like a horse who will improve for his new connections. Can a pick six bettor get past this race using only two? Out of budgetary necessity, one might be required to do just that, despite the upset nature of the class level.

JUVENILE FILLIES, race 5

One year ago – on Aug. 7, 2013 – trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Rafael Bejarano teamed at Del Mar with a European shipper in a turf route for maiden 2-year-old fillies. Clenor won that race, followed by two stakes.

O’Neill and Bejarano team again Wednesday with a similar European, this one on the main track. She’s Complete is the 3-1 favorite based on connections and sharp workouts. But she is not a slam dunk.

Redshirt is this handicapper’s top choice. Bred to run long, she trained like a route filly before and after her better-than-it-looked third-place debut in a sprint. Expectations are for an improved effort second time out, first time long. She is 4-1.

Looking for an outsider? The well-bred Hone In, trained by Victoria Oliver, has worked well for her California debut and second career start. She has a distance pedigree and exits a live race at Woodbine that produced two next-out maiden winners. Hone In is 10-1 and a good straight-bet gamble.

One other thing – trainer Jerry Hollendorfer stretches out Majestic Presence after a closing third in her sprint debut. Hollendorfer this year is stacked with 2-year-old fillies.

Hollendorfer has won nine special-weights in California with 2-year-old fillies. In chronological order: Seduire, Heart of Paradise, Caval, Do the Danse, Taparri, Tara’s Tango, Lutine Belle, Manahatta, and Lindisfarne. Majestic Presence would make it 10.

OTHERS, races 6-7

Benba is favored in race 6 for reasons including sharp form, established class, and proper speed figures. If it was not his third start of the meet already, he might be a single. Law Dog should be ranked second behind Cat Meeting. Both are “B” type runners.

No Jet Lag routes like a sprinter. A runoff around two turns, he gets his first chance to sprint in the U.S. in the Green Flash Handicap, race 7. It would have been a five-furlong turf race. But there are no more turf sprints this summer at Del Mar. No Jet Lag has worked well on Polytrack.

Everyone likes 6-year-old maidens, right? Sure. Aperfectdaytofly makes his second career start in race 8. His debut was better than it looked. Can a second-time starter, age 6, be the most probable winner in the pick six? Of course he can.

After all, it is Del Mar.