Free's preview: Alternative to the favorite

Friday, May 9 preview

MAIDEN TALK

Sky Preacher is likely to get hammered by bettors in race 1, a 4 1/2-furlong sprint for 2-year-old maidens. His works have been super; trainer Doug O’Neill used the term “stakes horse” referring to the son of Sky Mesa (13 percent wins first out). Rev up the hype.

But wait. If race 1 Thursday was won by a Tiz Wonderful-sired 2-year-old that did not get heavy betting action, perhaps the same can happen Friday. Tiz Jolie has shown speed in workouts at Los Alamitos, trainer Walther Solis can get the rookies ready to fire, and the colt’s odds are likely to be much higher than Sky Preacher's.

Race 4 is a $50,000 maiden claimer for 3-year-olds and up. Class dropper Cowtownmary is the pick, but first-timer Takeit To the Limit is worth mention because of his sire. Wildcat Heir sired 54 debut winners from 319 starters (17 percent), and though trainer Mike Pender does not win often with firsters, ’Cowtown merits consideration solely on pedigree.

CAL-BRED MSW

O’Neill-trained Frensham is favored in race 2, dropping from stakes into a maiden race for California-breds. His form is obvious. The form of his rival Golden Chalice is not so obvious. He was favored in his debut April 4, and finished last.

But over the years, Carla Gaines-trained maidens repeatedly have improved second out, regardless of how poorly they ran first out. Golden Chalice, a 3-year-old by Lucky Pulpit (California Chrome theme), adds blinkers and stretches out. This race will determine if he has any ability. His workouts suggest that he does.

BAZE AND SPEED

Find the pacesetter in race 3, and perhaps find the winner. The mile turf race for $25,000 claimers, non-winners of two, has seven entrants. None has speed. Dr. Spin is this handicapper’s pick, but Dancer Humor adds blinkers and has a jockey that understands the importance of speed. Tyler Baze could put Dancer Humor on the lead. If he clears, he could be gone.

Baze rides Eltoninadress in race 5, a one-mile race for $8,000 claiming fillies and mares. The 5-year-old mare will be making her 20th career start, and first around two turns. She will be easy to find. A front-runner/presser in sprints, she probably will set the pace. No bargain at 2-1, however.

SPOT PLAYS

Race 1

TIZ JOLIE (#4, 5-2) has shown speed in morning workouts, and is by the outstanding debut sire Tiz Wonderful. ’JOLIE faces well-hyped Sky Preacher, whose odds are likely to drop. Take the higher price.

Race 7

BACKINTHEACADEMY (#5, 6-1) is third preference, but her current form and recent figures put her on a par with favorites Lakota Road and Blake’s Magic. The three are evenly matched; the odds discrepancy makes ’ACADEMY a proper gamble.