Free's preview: The 4 1/2-furlong quandary

As spring turns to summer, handicappers face a sticky wicket – speed figures earned by 2-year-olds at 4 1/2 furlongs.

Are they significant, or not?

The dilemma is revisited Friday at Del Mar in the $100,000 CTBA Stakes, a 5 1/2-furlong sprint for California-bred 2-year-old fillies.

Lost Bus is favored based on her debut romp in May at Santa Anita. She won by more than six lengths and earned a 68 Beyer. If she earns the same number Friday in the CTBA, Lost Bus can win again.

However, her debut was at 4 1/2 furlongs. It is fair to question whether she can earn the same number, or higher, at 5 1/2 furlongs. Perhaps one should look warily at high figures earned in races at 4 1/2 furlongs.

Recent evidence suggests those abbreviated races are not indicative of future ability at longer distances.

At Santa Anita this spring, nine juvenile maiden winners (4 1/2 furlongs) ran back at a longer distance. Only two (Story to Tell, Wake Up Nick) earned figures equal or higher to their maiden-win figure. The other seven declined.

At Gulfstream Park this season, nine maiden winners (4 1/2 furlongs) ran back at a longer distance. Only one (Coco’s Wildcat) earned an equal or higher number. The other eight declined.

At Arlington this spring, three maiden winners (4 1/2 furlongs) ran back. All three earned lower numbers next out.

The sample is small, and imperfect. After all, every maiden-race winner at 4 1/2 moved up in class next out. Lost Bus is moving up in class also.

She might win the CTBA. But her odds will be based on a figure earned at a “pretend” distance. The likelihood that Lost Bus will reproduce her 68 Beyer while stretching to 5 1/2 on synthetic is dubious.

Singing Kitty is the CTBA alternative. She is not perfect, either.

Her debut was visually impressive, a crusher at five furlongs that earned a 59 Beyer. Not a fast race. It has been 10 years since a second-time starter won the CTBA. That was 2004 winner Sterling Cat, who earned an 82 Beyer in her debut at five furlongs, and reproduced the number in the CTBA.

The more one looks at the CTBA, the more perplexing it becomes. My Fiona has an off-the-pace running style that could play well in a race likely to unfold at a fast pace.

Two knocks on My Fiona. First, the main track favored speed on Thursday, opening day. Secondly, My Fiona’s trainer, Walther Solis, entered the meet having won with just 3 of his last 77 juvenile starters at Del Mar.

NIGHTCAP ACTION, race 8

At his program price of 5-1, Hazardous Dreams is worth a wager in race 8, a 1 1/16-mile turf race for California-bred maidens.

Prior to his June 28 start, he trained like a colt that would appreciate a route of ground. He ran like it in a downhill sprint.

He missed the break by at least five lengths. After that, it was nothing more than a schooling exercise.

Hazardous Dreams finished evenly, sixth of 10. Since then, he has posted two sharp works.

He switches to Rafael Bejarano, stretches to two turns, and should improve a ton for trainer Jorge Gutierrez. The son of Affirmative can post a minor upset as the sun sets. Post time for the final race Friday is about 7:30 p.m.