Freehold: Analysis for Thursday 10/3

MEET STATS: 86-35-20-13/ $181.40 (+9.40)

BEST BETS: 9-7-1-0 / $16.60 (-$1.40)

SPOT PLAYS: 9-3-2-1 / $28.60 (+$15.40)

BEST BETS: #3 BUCKEYE EMERY (1^st Race)

SPOT PLAY: #2 CENTRAL PARK (6^th Race)

It’s a short eight race Thursday card but there are two $70,000 NJSS Finals.

Race 1: NW $1000/L5

(3) BUCKEYE EMERY has been caught in some super quick miles the last three and has two fourth place checks to show for it. This field is dramatically easier and Ivan Llopez has been hot of late. With limited early speed in this race, there’s a chance he’s on the front end for as long as he can go. (7) PINEBUSH LIFESAVER took a tour of the track here on Saturday from the eight post and draws poorly again for new trainer Brandon Mongiello. I expect this one to leave and look for a good position early. (2) HLESINKI goes out first time for trainer Tim Lancaster. This 3-year-old has been a consistent check earner on a half mile track at Saratoga and may be the best of the rest. Tough race to handicap.

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Race 2: TrackMaster 68.5 (Pick 4)

(3) MAKE IT BIG is 0-20 in 2024 but has been close in three of his last four going uncovered to get two seconds and a third. Last week he had no chance from the eight post and he draws back inside here. If trainer/driver Terry Morgan can time his move better or work out a better trip, he has a strong chance to garner his first win of the season. (6) IDEAL TYSON A is 0-23 but may have enough gate speed to find early position. On 9/19, he left strongly to the lead, settled for the pocket and finished second at this level, missing by a length. (5) BELIEVEINTHESPIRIT goes fourth time off the bench and has back class and should be able to get a piece of this.

RACE 3: NJSS Standardbred Development 2-Year-Old Colts

(5) DO WHAT U DO has hit the board in all six career starts, with four second place finishes and two third place finishes including a sharp second in 1:51 3/5 at Philly on 9/12. He has early speed and has been finishing off his last four miles with final quarters of 27 and change. (3) JMS BEST BET won twice on the Monticello half mile oval and ships in for trainer/driver/owner Greg Merton. Has early speed and could sit a pocket here. (1) GAITWAY PATRIOT won on 9/21 after two bad draws of the seven post and should be well positioned here to have a major say.

Race 4: TrackMaster 72.5 (Pick 5)

(2) CENTURY FURY put in a scintillating wire-to-wire effort last out on 9/14 here at Freehold in 1:55 3/5 and a similar effort would be tough to beat. (4) ROCKINWITHTHEBEST has been underwhelming but has been in some fast miles and is well positioned here to get a piece of this. (1) SPINNAKER HANOVER is another that has been underwhelming but meets a weak field and could get a good trip from the rail. (3) UNCLE COZ steps off after a sold second and a win and his best is clearly good enough to contend at this level.

Race 5: NJSS Standardbred Development 2-Year-Old Colts (Pick 4)

(5) CATTLESHARK has good gate speed and has won two in a row after being over-matched in the NJSS Final and NJ Classic. He clearly has some talent and could be on the front end here. (2) BC’S CAPELA has been super impressive with three wins in five career starts including a win last out in the $60,000 Renaissance at 84-1 odds. He seems to be trip dependent with limited early speed and could be a vulnerable favorite but he is still a logical choice. (1) FLOOR IT FREDDIE has good early speed and should be on or near the lead. He tried cutting the mile in the Renaissance last week and settled for third and had been facing tougher over at the Meadowlands.

RACE 6: $70,000 NJSS Standardbred Development 3-Year-Old Filly Trot Final

This is a very competitive final. (2) CENTRAL PARK could be a major factor at a price and attracts Jordan Stratton in from New York. She has hit the board in 11-13 career starts with three wins and six second place finishes and won here on 9/12 in 1:55. She has good early food and is better positioned than the other speed from the outside. (3) SOUTHWIND BANSHEE has been very impressive in all three efforts here at Freehold with one win and two second place finishes. She got caught in the back of the pack last week in a pedestrian 1:01 2/5 first half and finished the back half in 56 seconds and is well positioned here. (4) ELOISE has good early speed and has seven wins in 24 career starts. She won here wire-to-wire on 9/19 in the Garden State and she could be on the lead. (6) TOVE PALEMA has two wins and a second since arriving at Freehold and has won seven of 21 career starts. She has won on the front end and also from behind but this is a very talented group and she draws the worst of the major contenders.

Race 7: NJSS Standardbred Development 3-Year-Old Colt Trot Final

(1) SEVEN REPS has won back to back here at Freehold including the $50,000 Garden State from the seven post and draws the coveted rail. There’s a good chance he will be on the lead or sitting a pocket trip as the Burke trainees could control this race. (3) HANKINS HANOVER is the other Burke trainee in here and he has good early speed to sit on or near the lead. He was an impressive wire-to-wire winner here on 9/19 by 5 1/4 lengths and he looks like a talented young trotter. (6) MR GRANT has two consecutive second place finishes here at Freehold after breaking when saddled with the eight post but draws somewhat poorly in here. He may have his work cut out to beat the Burke tandem but he is talented.

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Race 8: F&M TrackMaster 68.5

(2) SWEET MOVES won here three back on 9/6 sitting dead last at the half before circling the field. She now moves inside after drawing five consecutive six to eight posts and could change tactics in here and be on or near the lead. (3) CUTTING HUMOR draws inside after three consecutive seven posts and won four back in wire-to-wire fashion from this same three post. (4) GIRL ALMIGHTY also draws better but is definitely a step below the top two.