Freehold: Analysis for Friday 9/27
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MEET STATS: 67-27-13-12/ $153.30 (+19.30)
BEST BETS: 7-5-1-0 / $11.90 (-$2.10)
SPOT PLAYS: 7-2-2-1 / $28.60 (+$14.60)
BEST BETS: #4 TARRIFIC (3rd Race)
SPOT PLAY: #3 FUSSPOT (4th Race)
I have begun to get a good feel for the Friday cards at Freehold announcing them but my good friend Edison Hatter will be in the booth calling this 11 race card. I will be taking on evening duty calling the Yonkers card. However, I really do like most of this card.
Race 1: F&M TrackMaster 68.5
Tough race to handicap. (3) TWIN B SOLITAIRE wired a field at this level three back at 3:5 odds, moved up into a ridiculously fast mile where she was over-matched and then drew the eight post on the drop back down. There really isn’t much early speed in here and she may be the one cutting the mile. (5) LIFE’S ILLUSIONS makers her fourth start off the bench since early February and has finished third in two of her last three despite rough posts including a seven and eight post. She really hasn’t had a shot in either three races but seems to be rounding into form and could be nice value here. (7) HOT STUFF draws poorly but was a solid second two back at this level and has been caught in some fairly quick miles lately.
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Race 2: TrackMaster 68.5 (Trot) (Pick 4)
(3) TRUMP THIS hasn’t succeeded in his efforts lately to “Make Freehold Great Again” but has taken tote board action and put in two decent efforts. He sat a three hole two back and was able to close for second and last week he was stung uncovered almost the entire mile and retreated to fourth. There’s very little early speed in here and he likely will be cutting the mile. (1) GRAFENBERG makes his third start off the bench. Watch the tote board. When right, this horse can dominate this field and twice earlier this year took strong tote support from the eight post here at Freehold and crushed fields, including a 4 1/4 length win on 5/17 at a higher level. Jimmy Marohn Jr. chose this one over #3. (7) KING CAST has disappointed a bit lately and hasn’t lived up to his stunning good looks but has faced tougher much of the year and has hit the board in 10-21 races.
RACE 3: NJSS Standardbred Development 3-Year-Old Fillies
(4) TARRIFIC has won four straight stakes races in New York in dominant fashion at odds ranging from 1:20 to 1:9. She has six wins in 10 starts this year including eye popping miles of 1:52 2/5 at Yonkers and 1:51 at Tioga. She has earned $322,475 in 2024 and she should crush this field at extremely low odds. (5) CELSIUS is an improving 3-year-old who has won three of her last five since switching to Per Engblom. Her most recent was a fantastic mile last week here in the Homegrown where she won by 4 1/2 in 1:53 4/5 and she should finish off an ice cold, cheap exacta. (1) TOP OF MIND has cashed checks in six of her last seven at Tioga including two wins and seems to be improving but has to adjust to the half mile oval.
Race 4: F&M NW 1/TrackMaster 60
(3) FUSSPOT has been caught in some quick miles of late and this is lights years an easier spot. She finished second three back in condition company and makes her 10th start of the year. This veteran 7-year-old has 10 career wins and she meets a field that is 3-163 lifetime. (4) MAJOR RISE has cashed tickets in four of her last six and is improving. She was second last week in a TM 68.5 and drops into an easier spot. (5) T H MRS MCMURRY is 0-24 and has been a major disappointment but showed a bit of life in her last two and she could round out the triple here.
Race 5: NJSS Standardbred Development 3-Year-Old Fillies (Pick 5)
This is a talented compact field of fillies where nobody would be a shock to win. (3) ODDS ON STENO set a quick clip here on 9/13 and got beat late, finishing second by a half length in 1:54 2/5. She has seven wins and 13 exacta finishes in 19 starts with $294,450 in the bank and she should be on the lead for as long as she can go. (2) MIKI IN LUV jumped off stride two back in the first leg of this series at 1:9 odds and got distanced but rebounded nicely last week in the Homegrown with a strong second place closing into a super-fast mile. She has nine wins in 26 career starts and has chased some really fast sub-1:50 miles but doesn’t seem to love the half mile oval as much. She is still super talented and is a major contender. (1) PULP FICTION was super last year as a 2-year-old winning six of nine starts and $189,400. She won two of her last three in NW company over at Harrington and has shown good gate speed on 5/8th mile tracks.
RACE 6 : NW 2500/L5 - TrackMaster 75.5 (Trot)
(2) CONGRESS HILL EVA broke two back at this level at 4:5 odds but last week was flying late in the stretch from the clouds and finished a strong second. She is typically a major player at this level and she draws better in here than she has in a long time. (5) OH LINA has beaten better this year and was a strong second in her last outing missing by just a neck. She has been facing tougher much of the year. (4) MIGHTY SURF makers her fifth start off the bench and seems to be rounding into form despite being disqualified last week when she finished third for causing interference. She won at this level here on 5/24.
Race 7: NJSS Standardbred Development 2-Year-Old Colt Trotters
What could possibly go wrong in a field of 2-year-old trotters on a half mile oval? Races like this are often a function of who will stay on stride so there are scenarios where anyone can win this. (5) KEVLAR CCL broker here last week after some solid efforts over at the Meadowlands and he had a lot of trot after he got back on stride. He’s a risk but he certainly seems to have some talent. (4) SEVEN LAYER blew up before the half mile marker here last week after getting bet down to 4:5 odds but is another horse that showed talent out of town on larger ovals. (6) SAFE TALK was the beneficiary of the top two choices in here breaking last week and despite some rough gaited issues out of town, seemed to get around Freehold well. He draws a tough post in here but the Burke-Bongirono combination always has to merit respect.
Race 8: F&M NW $2500/L5 - TrackMaster 76 (Pick 4)
(2) UTE BLUE CHIP looks like a much improved horse since shipping into Freehold for Tom Fanning. She has cashed checks in all four races including a win on 9/6 and two third place finishes. She closed stoutly and is well positioned in a race that doesn’t have much early speed. (5) CORSINI A has been consistently solid week after week and has beaten better this year. She has hit the board in 13-30 races this year and was a strong second last week. (3) GAITWAY GAL was in over her head last week at Philly but went wire-to-wire two back here at this level at even money and has back class.
Race 9: NJSS Standardbred Development 2-Year-Old Colt Trotters
It’s so difficult to handicap these two year old trot races. Who will stay flat? (2) FORWARD PATH clearly has ability and has been facing some tough young trotters including in the NJ Classic. Last week she jogged at the NW1 level at Pocono at 1:20 odds and John Butenschoen is well known for his work with young trotters. (4) ASSIDUOUS ships in from Lexington and won two of his last three including an impressive 1:54 3/5 mile. Will he adjust to the half mile oval? I’m not sure what to make of (5) HERECOMESDAJUDGE. He broke before the start here last week and then made up 23 lengths by the top of the stretch in a “break-fest” of a race but do note it was a very slow race won by the #1 Soft Landing
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Race 10: F&M TrackMaster 72.5
(3) BETTE TINA has cashed checks in each of her last seven, mostly in the Amateur ranks but won at this level four back with a strong finish with William Clark in the sulky. She picks up the hot Justin Huckabone in here. (1) DREAM PILLAR loves the TM 68.5 and has posted 6 wins this year in 19 starts. She looked like a rocket ship blasting out of the gate from the eight post and jogging in wire-to-wire fashion last week by four lengths. She should be well positioned in here despite the bump up in class. (2) TRISH SPEAKER has won two of her last three and has adjusted well from the NW 1 ranks to the TrackMaster classes. She bumps up here but looks like she can compete at this level.
Race 11: F&M TrackMaster 68.5
(3) ITS MESMERISE N finally draws inside at Freehold after some strong efforts from outside posts and drops down a notch. Had it not been for an absolute standout in the third race today in a short field, this one would’ve been my best bet. She’s been in tough spots against tough company and this is a perfect spot for her first victory of the season. (2) BRIGHTEN YOUR LIFE won on first asking off the hiatus on 9/13 by an impressive 4 3/4 lengths. Last week she put in an even effort at the TM 72.5 level and drops back down and draws well. (1) EA MUSHU seems to be getting back on track after some subpar performances and has five wins including a win at a higher level.