Freehold: Analysis for Friday 9/20
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MEET STATS: 48-20-11-7/ $121.70 (+25.70)
BEST BETS: 5-4-1-0 / $9.50 (-$0.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 5-2-1-1 / $28.60 (+$18.60)
BEST BETS: (10th Race) #4 BYRDS THE WORD
SPOT PLAY: (4th Race) #8 QUEEN SUN RYSER
Race 1: F&M TrackMaster 68.5
(3) EA MUSHU has struggled lately, however when right, she is as good or better than anyone in this field. On 8/30 something clearly went wrong from the rail (might have tied up), then she was in over a head over at the Big M and drew poorly last week in a no chance mile. She has early speed if called upon, gets aggressive Tyler Miller in the bike, has five wins this year (the rest of the field has seven wins combined in 2024) and has beaten better both here and at the Meadowlands. (2) JOVITOLA put in solid efforts on 8/23 from the eight post and on 8/30 finished second at 7:5 odds securing a pocket trip. After a decent fifth place effort, she got in over her head last week in a super fast leg of the NJ Standardbred Futurity after pacing 1:56 and now drops back down. She should be destined for a front-running or pocket trip. (1) FUSSPOT makes her fifth start off the bench and ninth start in 2024. On 9/6 she secured a pocket and finished second and last week got caught in a super fast mile at this level and had no chance. (7) REACHIN FOR HEAVEN makes her fifth start off the bench and finished fourth in her last three tries. She draws poorly but does have the highest TrackMaster rating in the field.
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Race 2: TrackMaster 68.5 (Trot) (Pick 4)
I’ve had the pleasure of standing next to (3) KING CAST and he is an absolutely gorgeous animal. He makes his fourth start off the bench after drawing poorly all three starts and now moves inside where I expect him to change tactics a bit and head for the front. He put in some solid efforts this spring against better and is well positioned for a front-running or pocket trip. Let’s see if his ability can live up to his looks. (4) TRUMP THIS put in a solid effort in his return to “Make Freehold Great Again,” being bet down to 2-1 odds. He has earned checks in five of his last seven. He won here in 2023 in 1:57 2/5 but is winless in 28 starts in 2024. (5) HOLD ME CLOSER drew the rail three weeks in a row and parlayed it into two consecutive wins but a costly a break behind the gate last week when he moved up again. This could be considered close to a double drop in class but her two wins came with very slow back halves and easy leads. She certainly has a chance in here but she also shows vulnerability as the ML favorite. (7) MY BIG KADILLAC has been doing much of his work this year at the Amateur level but jogged here on 8/23 at this level at even money. The 10-year-old draws poorly and broke last week but he is good enough to win with the right trip and set up.
RACE 3: NJSS Sire Stakes Standardbred Development Fund 2-Year-Old Colt Trot
We have a short field of five two year old colt trotters with three horses making their first start on a half mile oval and the two, who have one tour on a half mile track, both broke. What could possibly go wrong? (4) KEVLAR CCL has six lifetime starts, all at the Meadowlands, stayed flat in each start and earned a check in each start, including three third place finishes. He was a bit overmatched in the NJ Classic Finals on 9/6 at the Big M but he seems a bit more polished than the others. (5) SEVEN LAYER broke his only time on a half mile track over at Monticello but shows a solid effort on 9/6 at the Meadowlands in the NJ Classic Consolation finishing second in 1:55. (1) CIGAR NIGHT broke on the half at Northfield but has shown early speed and trainer Ake Svanstedt takes the reins, and he shows two smooth efforts (one was a qualifier) with Ake in charge.
Race 4: F&M TrackMaster 68.5
(8) QUEEN SUN RYSER may be a bit of a reach in here from the eight post but she is the fastest horse in this race with by far the highest TrackMaster rating. She has been caught in some fast races and her lines don’t show all that much but this is the lowest level she has been in for some time, as she is tagged for $5,000. She was facing much tougher all summer. She picks up Corey Callahan and will need some racing luck and for things to fall her way but she definitely has the ability to win this. (4) EDEN PAIGE N qualified strongly on 9/6 going wire-to-wire and then in her first PM start since April had a no chance trip from the seven post but showed decent pace. This 13-year-old mare has 49 lifetime wins, has hit the board in six of 12 starts this year and should be able to march to the front in a field void of early speed. She is in a good position to challenge for win number 50. (2) RED DAWN has finished third three times in a row and seems to be improving. She only has seven wins in 145 lifetime starts and may get caught in the three hole here but with the right trip, she could be in position to pounce. (6) MISS YOU JOANN comes in from Monticello, has a mark of 1:55 4/5 at Saratoga this year and picks up Joe Bongiorno. This may be slightly easier than what she was facing the last few weeks.
RACE 5: NJSS Sire Stakes Standardbred Development Fund 2-Year-Old Filly Trot (Pick 5)
We have a short field of six two year old filly trotters with four horses making their first start on a half mile oval and the two who have, both show breaks. What could possibly go wrong? LOL. (1) SEVENTH GEN was absolutely brilliant on 9/6 in her second PM start at Philly, leaving from the seven post, clearing the lead around the 3/8th mark and trotting a back half in an eye opening 56 4/5 to win by a 1/2 length. While these are all 2-year-olds, Seventh Gen is 1-2 months older than the rest of the field having been foaled on 3/9/22. It might not sound like much but an extra 4-8 weeks of maturity at age two is an advantage. She should control the action from the rail. (5) MORNING ANGEL has the most half mile experience in this field and despite a break in the NYSS Final on 9/7, she does show three decent miles on a half mile oval and wired a field at Vernon from the seven hole on 7/26. (3) PANACEA HANOVER is a bit of a wild card showing breaks in her last two PM starts, however, she has two second place finishes in four races including a strong closing second on 8/23 at Philly in 1:55 4/5 with Lucas Wallin in the bike and Lucas drives again today.
Race 6: F&M NW$2500 L5/TrackMaster 75.5
This is a very competitive field. (4) ANNE BONNEY N was super impressive last week in defeat. She left hard and got parked in a fast first quarter. She couldn’t reach the lead, had the pocket shut off and had to be strangled back into the three hole. Approaching the 3/4 pole, she came uncovered, battled on and finished second missing by a 1/2 length in 1:56. This is her third try now at Freehold and she is well positioned to have a major impact. (2) CORSINI A had no chance last week from the eight post but did make up 5 1/4 lengths in the back half and had pace. The week before, she got caught in a paceless race and had no chance but did finish third missing by two lengths. She was facing better most of the summer and won at a slightly higher level at the Big M on 7/26. (6) FIRSTUP makes her eighth start of the year and picks up Joe Bongiorno. She has faced slightly tougher out of town and this 10-year-old has 36 career wins. She was a strong second two back at Pocono and showed early foot on 8/20 getting to the top from the eight post before fading late to fifth. (3) JUST ROLLING has put in four consecutive solid efforts in a row since shipping in to Freehold including two consecutive 1:55 4/5 miles. Last week she was full of pace from the eight post closing for fourth. Despite just three lifetime wins in 45 career starts, she continues to move up but it looks like she can compete with these.
Race 7: New Jersey Sire Stakes Standardbred Development Fund 2-Year-Old-Filly Trot (Pick 4)
We have a short field of six two year old filly trotters with five of the six horses making their first start on a half mile oval. What could possibly go wrong? This is a wide open race and tough to handicap. (2) GETTIN YOU HOME has shown good early foot in several starts and is the oldest of the 2-year-olds in here. She was impressive on 8/23 over at Philly winning by a neck in 1:55 4/5 and shows clean lines in all of her starts. Corey Callahan is aboard for the fourth consecutive time. (6) BOUQUET has earned checks in all five career starts and has been caught up in some very fast miles over at the Big M. She was a solid third in a NJSS event on 7/19 finishing in 1:54 4/5 and earned a check in the $250,000 NJ Classic in her most recent start. Trainer Lucas Wallin is in the bike today and it is often better when someone familiar with a young two year old is in charge. (3) TRULY AUTHENTIC makes her first PM start after two consecutive winning qualifiers at Philly and Pocono. She has displayed good early foot and it’s good to see Ake Svanstedt in the sulky, as he owns and trains her and certainly is familiar.
Race 8: NW $2500 L5/TrackMaster 75.5 (Trot)
(1) MAKING MAGIC TONITE came back to Freehold on 8/30 at this level from the rail and led every step of the way going wire-to-wire at 9-1 odds with Eric Davis. Since then, she has drawn two seven posts and both were solid efforts, finishing fifth two back and last week, third missing by just a neck. This is her second start on Lasix and this is not a tough group. She has hit the ticket in 15-30 starts this year but picks up her fourth different driver in four races in Justin Huckabone. (3) MIGHTY SURF makes her fourth start off the bench. On 9/6 she was a solid third missing by 3/4 length. Last week she set the fractions but tired late to fifth missing by three lengths. She won here on 5/10 in 1:59 1/5 and on on 5/24 at this level in 1:58 4/5. (4) ROBERT MICHAEL broke his maiden last week going wire-to-wire by five lengths in 1:59 3/5 after putting in a strong mile from the eight post on 9/6. Prior to that start, he had been facing tougher over at Yonkers and this 3-year-old seems to have some ability.
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Race 9: F&M TrackMaster 72.5
(5) RUN BABY has been impressive since coming down from Canada and joining the Izzy Estrada barn. On 8/23, she got into a heat two horse battle with Roma Amor for a half mile as both dueled each other into submission but only lost by 1 3/4 lengths. She finished second on 8/30 and 9/6 setting solid fractions in both miles. Last week she absolutely ran them off their feet going wire-to-wire in an impressive 1:55 4/5 at 1:5 odds. She has 20 exacta finishes in 47 career starts and she should be able to find her way to the front again and she could prove tough to catch. (6) GOING AWAY jogged in front-end fashion last week at 1:20 odds by 7 3/4 lengths in a NW2. She is an improving 3-year-old and won impressively at Philly on 8/16 in 1:54 1/5. She seems to have an explosive move and has shown she can win on or off the pace. (2) BRIGHTEN YOUR LIFE won her first PM start off the bench impressively last week with a backstretch brush on to a 4 3/4 length victory. She has won five times this year and was battling at this level earlier this year.
Race 10: F&M TrackMaster 68.5
I may need to have my head examined but I am making (4) BYRDS THE WORD my best bet of the day. Yes, she is 1-48 from 2023-24 and has just 6 wins in 95 starts but this may be the easiest field she has seen all year. This field is a combined 2-103 in 2024 and the two wins came from #7 and #8 in here, who both really have no chance from the outside. This is her third start off the bench. On 9/6 she put in a decent effort finishing third and last week she had a no chance trip from the eight post but seemed to have some interest. There’s very little early speed in here and maybe we will see a change in tactics by Siegelman, who has 80 winning drives on the season (six of the other drivers in here have a combined 27 wins). (6) PRINCESS SHARKTANK has been saddled with the eight post in two of her last three. On 9/6, she left hard from the four post and set too quick of a pace and folded but she could find herself on the lead in here with owner/trainer and provisional driver, Dominik Miga. She makes her sixth start off of a three year maternity leave and is a feel good story seeing her back at the races. (5) MAJOR RISE makes her eighth career start and is still a maiden. She has a mixed array of miles where she has shown ability and a few clunkers. Last week she gave a decent effort finishing third to a runaway winner.