Freehold: Analysis for Friday 12/13
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MEET STATS: 199-82-45-28/$367.90 (-$30.10)
BEST BETS: 21-14-4-0 /$36.20 (-$5.80)
SPOT PLAYS: 21-6-6-2 /$46.40 (+9.40)
BEST BETS: #3 JUST MY MAMA (2nd Race)
SPOT PLAY: #4 VINTAGE GAL (3rd Race)
We are down to our last three weekends at Freehold. I truly hope you can join us live in-person for a piece of history and to spend a day with the wonderful Freehold family. My top choice has won 17 of the last 28 races the last three Fridays but it’s been pretty chalky. Let’s see if I can keep the hot streak going.
Race 1: F&M TrackMaster 68.5
(2) BLUEBIRD CRUSH has tailed off a bit lately but draws inside against a very beatable field. Three back on 11/22, she quarter moved and won at this level at 1:20 odds. There’s not much early speed in here and she should be well positioned. (1) LIFE’S ILLUSIONS broke stride last week from the outside at a higher level but drops back down where she has cashed tickets in each of her last six races at this level including five on the board finishes. Two back, on 11/29, she went wire-to-wire at this level and she should have a major say in here. (5) CUTTING HUMOR has cashed checks in six of her last seven including back-to-back second place finishes on 11/22 and 11/29. On 11/29, she was parked pretty much the entire mile and was game throughout and Justin Huckabone chose her over #7.
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Race 2: F&M NW 2 (Pick 4)
(3) JUST MY MAMA has been a solid performer at Freehold. She ships back in from the Meadowlands after facing tougher and she has hit the board in six out of her ten races at Freehold including an easy win against tougher on 9/26 at 1:5 odds. This is by far the softest bunch she has faced in three months and she should dominate this field. (5) MAJOR RISE has been drawing poorly of late and facing tougher and now drops down where we should see a much more aggressive effort. On 11/8, she beat a better field at 8:5 odds but has been caught in some fast miles recently. We’re all rooting for Irish Joe Hanney to break through with the first win on the comeback trail. (4) SHOPPING SPREE has cashed checks in three consecutive races at this level and should be on the engine in here. She won here at a slightly lower level in wire-to-wire fashion on 11/1 at 1:5 odds.
Race 3: F&M TrackMaster 68.5
(4) VINTAGE GAL drops down after earning minor checks in three consecutive races at a higher level. In 2023-24, she has been in the exacta 27 out of 74 races including 11 wins. She has the highest TrackMaster rating in what is a pretty competitive field. (1) HOT STUFF is a model of consistency at this level. She has earned checks in each of her last seven, hitting the board six of those times. She went wire-to-wire at this level on 11/15 and she has good early speed to find solid position from the rail. (6) EXCITING TIMES A is still a bit of a wild card. She made a bold uncovered move two races back from the eight post before folding against a prohibitive favorite and then was well bet last out at the Meadowlands and tried the front end but completely packed it in at the three quarter pole. She goes third time for trainer Jacob Stillwell and she won down in Virginia on 10/5 by 6 1/2 lengths in 1:56 4/5.
Race 4: TrackMaster 72.5/Optional Claiming $7,500 (Pick 5)
(5) WESTERN ROSIE had back-to-back dominant wins here on 11/22 and 11/29 for Izzy Estrada at a lower level but was a bit of a lackluster second last week at this level at 1:5 odds. She will likely be the prohibitive favorite again in here and she has 14 exacta finishes in 40 races in 2024 but she could be vulnerable making her 41st start of the year. (4) LAZARUS GIRL drops down and could offer some value here with Irish Joe Hanney. She was facing $20,000 claimers over at Yonkers throughout October and has been finishing her miles well recently here at Freehold. In 2023-24, she has been in the exacta 19 out of 53 races and with the right trip here, she could pull off the upset but will have to outmaneuver the two Izzy trainees in here. (3) LYONS SHELLBY does her best work one level down but is the other Izzy trainee in here and both could line up 1-2 early. She went wire-to-wire last week at a lower level and could wind up in the pocket here.
Race 5: F&M NW $2,500 L5/TrackMaster 75.5 (Pick 4)
(3) ROYALTYS DREAMER was a game second on the front end last week for Izzy, making her debut at Freehold. From 2023-24, she has landed in the exacta 24 out of 66 times. She likely will sit the pocket here behind the other Izzy Estrada trainee. (6) MADDY N MAGGIE has 10 wins in 2024 and went wire-to-wire in six consecutive races here from 10/25 to 11/29. Last week she unsuccessfully tried the same tactics over at Philly and was inhaled in the stretch at 4:5 odds. She ships back into Freehold for Izzy and will be on the front end at short odds again. (4) ROMA AMOR ships back in from the Meadowlands after facing tougher and won at this level when last seen here on 11/1.
Race 6: F&M TrackMaster 68.5
(2) MACHIN ME ZILLY ships in from the upstate New York circuit for the very capable David Wiskow. She finally draws an inside post and comes off a solid third place finish at Monticello last time out on the front end. She meets a weak field and the 10-year-old has 30 career wins. (5) BRICKYARD BEACON has had absolutely no chance the last four races with bad posts and horrible trips. She went wire-to-wire on 11/2 at 4:5 odds at this level and was a solid second on 10/18 going three wide and taking the lead at the top of the stretch. Savvy trainer Ray Baynes could have this one ready to go. (4) JUST RENEE has cashed checks in each of her last six races and seems to be improving.
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RACE 7: TrackMaster 68.5
(3) ROCKINWITHTHEBEST has been facing much tougher most of the meet and this is the easiest field he has faced in a long time. On 10/26 he went wire-to-wire from an inside post against tougher and he likely will employ similar tactics in here. The crafty veteran has 32 career wins. (4) GAIUS CRASTINUS has won two of the last three times when seen at this level but his TrackMaster rating is a bit underwhelming. However, he is another veteran who knows how to win with 44 career victories. (8) MAKE AMERICA GREAT goes second time for Justin Sodano and could fire out off the gate. He tried those tactics last week from the outside when bet down to 5:2 favoritism but packed it in mid-stretch on a bit of a slow and unforgiving track last week. This horse could be sneaky in here.
Race 8: TrackMaster 68.5 (Trot)
(1) HUNTERS GAL is the lone mare in the field but draws well in a field somewhat void of early speed. She could be on or near the lead and she has won eight times in 2024. On 10/25 she closed stoutly to beat a field one level higher and William Clark led her to victory in the Amateurs here on 11/16. She has the highest TrackMaster rating in this field. (2) LIMERENCE has finished second in three of his last four races but has just one win in 37 starts this year. The last two times at this level he drew the rail and tried to wire fields and both times caved late to miss by a 1/2 length. Someone has to finish third so why not (4) BRICKYARD KING. He has cashed checks in five of his last six at this level, has six second place finishes this year despite being winless and could outrace his 25:1 ML.