Freehold: Analysis for Friday 11/8

MEET STATS: 152-58-34-25/ $267.20 (-$36.80)

BEST BETS: 16-10-3-0 / $25.00 (-$7.00)

SPOT PLAYS: 16-3-4-2 / $28.60 (-$3.40)

BEST BETS: #1 GAIUS CRASTINUS (9^th Race)

SPOT PLAY: #5 MAKIN MAGIC TONITE (6^th Race)

Race 1: F&M TrackMaster 68.5

(7) JUST MY MAMA draws outside again after two straight eight posts but she is probably the fastest horse in this race. She has a win, two second place finishes and two third place finishes in her last seven tries at Freehold. She had an adventurous trip last week, parked most of the way and finished third missing by 1 3/4 lengths. Two back, she had a no chance mile from the back of the pack. With any kind of decent trip in here, she should be able to find the Winner’s Circle. (1) MAJOR RISE comes in off a sick scratch but has two wins, a second and a third in her last six tries. Both wins came off perfect pocket trips and there’s a good chance she lands in the pocket here. (5) MOLLY MCARDLE went wire-to-wire here two back after finishing second from the eight post the week before. You can probably ignore the debacle last week at Philly as it was super fast mile for that level. She has good early speed and should be able to reach the top early here.

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Race 2: F&M NW $2500 L5/TrackMaster 75.5/Optional Claiming $10,000 (Pick 4)

(2) CORSINI A is one of the hardest trying mares you will find. She’s cashed checks in seven of her last eight including four second-place finishes in her last six. She rarely gets respect at the betting windows. She draws the best she has in six weeks and there’s a chance she could land in the pocket here behind the rail horse. (1) WESTERN ROSIE found the sledding a bit more difficult in a tough field for this level last week after three consecutive dominant wire-to-wire scores. Last week she found herself off the pace but she will control the action from the rail here and could be tough to catch. (5) KNOCK TWICE has four wins and has hit the board in 11-18 career starts including an eye-catching 1:55 4/5 score here two back at a lower level. This 3-year-old seems to have some ability and she threw has thrown in some impressive final quarters and could be a handful with a good cover trip.

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Race 3: F&M TrackMaster 68.5

(6) EA MUSHU got caught in an incredibly fast mile last week for this level. I am willing to ignore the bad line. She has 13 exacta finishes this year including six wins. She was an impressive 3 1/4 length winner at this level on 10/10. (8) BUEBIRD CRUSH drops down after facing tougher and has done some good work at this level. This is by far the easiest field she has faced in a while but she must overcome the horrible draw. (5) PRINCESS GLYDANA is a bit camera shy with just four wins in 74 starts from 2023-24 but she’s been caught in some tough miles lately but has cashed checks in six of her last seven.

Race 4: F&M TrackMaster 72.5/Optional Claiming $7,500

(6) MADDY N MAGGIE was facing $20,000 claimers four weeks in a row over at Yonkers and cashed checks in all four then mysteriously was dropped in here for a $5,000 tag two back and absolutely crushed fields in back-to-back weeks. Last week she was a dominant wire-to-wire winner in 1:55 3/5. She steps up slightly and she clearly has some issues to be offered so cheaply but she will be tough to catch in here if she reaches the top early. (5) HOLD MY TIARA has won four of her last seven including an impressive score two back on 10/25. She seems to be in peak form but doesn’t typically have good early speed so she needs a good outer flow. (2) LADYZAR has really stepped up her game the last four since shipping back to Freehold with three second place finishes and a win. She is very quick off the gate and could land a pocket trip in here but she will need to step her game to beat the top two.

Race 5: F&M TrackMaster 68.5 (Pick 5)

(5) SHORTYS GIRL makes her fourth start off the bench and has been solid in her last two, showing signs of improvement. She was facing much tougher this year, has a bit of back class and might just be better than these. (1) TWO MORE DREAMS was a dominant wire-to-wire winner two back at this level by 3 3/4 lengths and she drops back down and lands the rail. She has cashed checks in eight of her last nine starts and she has good early speed to make good use of the pole position. (4) REACHIN FOR HEAVEN has a similar story. She was a dominant winner two back on 10/25 by 5 1/2 lengths at this level and then had a no chance trip from the eight post last week at a higher level but still only missed by four lengths. She’s had legitimate excuses in her three most recent losses.

Race 6: NW $2500 L5/TrackMaster 75.5

(5) MAKIN MAGIC TONITE has shown solid improvement since adding Lasix four back. She’s won two of her last six along with a second and third place finish and in her two recent off-the-board finishes she was saddled with bad posts. She has hit the exacta 13 times this year and has good early speed. (1) PARODY has squandered some good draws of late but is always a threat from the rail position where she has won several times this year. She needs to get away a bit better than she did in her last and should offer a square price in here. (3) ROBERT MICHAEL keeps getting hammered at the betting windows and was putting in nice efforts before breaking early last week. Two back he finished second, losing by a nose and he has hit the board in four of his last five races.

Race 7: F&M TrackMaster 68.5/Optional Claiming $5,000 (Pick 4)

(2) LYONS SHELBY returns to Freehold after two abysmal miles out of town but joins the Izzy Estrada barn, which has been a super successful formula many times this year. She drops down and won her two previous tries at this level for Paul Fusco. (5) DREAM PILLAR has won six times at this level at Freehold this year and was an impressive second last week in a super-fast mile for this level. She has 10 exacta finishes in 24 tries this year and she should be able to get to the top early in here; is well positioned to be on or near the lead early. Her last four times at this level, she has two wins and two second place finishes. (1) VINTAGE GAL has good early speed to take advantage of the rail and find good early position. She has hit the board in 18-28 this year, including nine exacta finishes and she was caught in a fast mile last week finishing third.

Race 8: TrackMaster 68.5 (Trot)

(3) TRUMP THIS - Call it a hunch! Why else would I choose a horse that is 0-35 this year, but hold on. He has cashed tickets in five of his last seven and faces a field that is 7-154 overall. This could be the weakest field he has faced in a long time and might just be the best chance he’s had in awhile to “Make Freehold Great Again!” (5) KING CAST has disappointed me many times but to his credit, he has cashed checks in six of his last seven and has hit the board in 13-27 this year despite just two wins. He has good early speed and could find himself on the front end early. I struggled to come up with a third choice in here but (4) NOTMEITSYOU does have two third place finishes since returning six races back.

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Race 9: TrackMaster 68.5

(1) GAIUS CRASTINUS finally gets a reprieve from the post position gods. This 11-year-old class-master has 42 career wins and finally draws inside for the first time in seven races. He was a wire-to-wire winner at this level on 10/12 from post position five and he meets a weak field and should control things from the rail. (7) UILLIAM draws poorly but has a win and three seconds in his last seven tries and is a steadily improving 3-year-old. He won at this level from the six post back on 9/26 using early speed and he seems like a versatile horse so long as he can find a decent trip. (2) IDEAL TYSON A won back on 10/3 at this level going wire-to-wire and then tried the same tactics a week later at one level higher but tired late to finish third. Since then he has changed tactics and has finished third back-to-back weeks at this level. This 12-year-old veteran has 34 career wins and he may land in the pocket here.

Race 10: F&M TrackMaster 68.5

HELP!!! This field is 3-155 this year and horses #2-#8 are a combined 2-214 in their careers. Meanwhile, the eight drivers in here are a combined 52-911 this year. So with all the craziness, I will add to it and land on (6) GIDGET LAUXMONT, who is 1-57 in her career. She drops back down after a no chance trip at a higher level and has the highest TrackMaster rating in the field. In addition, she had two solid second place finishes at this level on 9/19 and 9/26 and she really has nothing much to beat in here. Talk about a “now or never” proposition. (1) SWEET TALKIN GYPSY was a solid second five back on 10/4 but her recent efforts have been uninspiring. She draws the rail here for a driver with just one exacta finish in 33 drives since coming back but we’re all rooting for “Irish” Joe Hanney! However, the 6:5 ML is a tough pill to swallow. (4) MYSTIQUE GIRL has continuously disappointed me and has just one win in 46 starts but often shows glimpses of hope and typically earns some minor checks. One of these days she is going to pop at a price against a weak field and it doesn’t get much weaker than this. (8) BROWNSVILLE would likely have been my top choice had she drawn better and had Mark Herschberger on board but she lands on the outside and has likable trainer Tim Lancaster in the sulky. This is just her seventh career start and she has already hit the board three times including a hard charging second last week where she missed by a neck with a final quarter of 28 4/5.