Freehold: Analysis for Friday 10/11

MEET STATS: 105-42-25-15/ $203.00 (-$7.00)

BEST BETS: 11-7-1-0 / $16.60 (-$5.40)

SPOT PLAYS: 11-3-2-1 / $28.60 (+$6.60)

BEST BET: #1 WESTERN ROSIE (4^th Race)

SPOT PLAY: #1 JESSIES OUTLAWED (7^th Race)

Race 1: F&M TrackMaster 68.5

(2) UNNREAL goes with third-time Lasix after a strong second place finish last week and an impossible trip from the eight post two back in a fast mile. She has just two exacta finishes in 32 starts this year but this field is a combined 9-152 in the win column and she is well positioned. (3) WIGGLING JENNA has been somewhat underwhelming of late but does have two consecutive third place finishes her last two, has three wins in 2024 and has hit the board 10-25 times. She has early speed and should be a factor. (4) TWIN B SOLITAIRE won at this level on 8/30 and was a solid second on 9/27. She had excuses in several of her other recent efforts drawing outside posts and also getting caught in a fast mile at a higher level. Provisional driver Geovany Hernandez gets the catch drive here, which should lead to a fair price.

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Race 2: F&M NW 2 (Pick 4)

This field is a combined 1-97 in 2024. I can’t see #2, #6, #7 or #8 hitting the exacta in here and #1 is making her first start in 2024. That leaves me down to a choice of three. (4) MYSTIQYE GIRL has the only win in this field in 2024 and was my price play last week but she only managed a fourth place finish. She has hit the board in 11-22 starts this year and gets Irish Joe Hanney in the bike replacing owner/trainer Joe Martin. If she doesn’t win here, I don’t know when she will. (5) BROWNSVILLE makes her third career start, which automatically makes her super attractive in this field based upon that fact alone. She finished third in both PM starts from inside posts and was bet down to 9:5 last week at this level. (3) HP TOP MODELE is the wild card here shipping in from Canada for her new connections. This 2-year-old shows a few good efforts up in Canada but there is always concern with young horses their first time on the Freehold oval.

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RACE 3: TrackMaster 68.5 (Trot)

This field is a combined 6-140 in 2024. (5) JAYDENS PRIDE has hit the board in 5-11 career starts and won three back at Philly. He followed that up with a strong third place finish in a lightning fast race finishing in 1:56:4. The lone 3-year old in the field has good early speed to find his way towards the front and he hit the board in two starts at Saratoga on a half-mile oval utilizing good early speed. (2) REDDY FOX draws inside for the first time since going back on Lasix and has shown early foot previously. He has just one win in 45 career starts but this would be the ideal time to try front end tactics against a weak field. (6) DROP THE MIC has been facing tougher here at Freehold for the most part and has earned checks in five of his last seven. He won last year at Philly in 1:56 3/5 and was a beaten favorite at 7:5 odds last week at this level and this field is easier.

Race 4: F&M TrackMaster 72.5/Optional Claiming $7500

(1) WESTERN ROSIE was facing tougher over at Philly and won four back on 9/6 in an eye popping 1:52 3/5. Last week she made a strong uncovered brush to the lead but got beaten by the pocket sitter by 3/4 of a length as the 3:5 favorite. She has the highest TrackMaster rating in the field should control the action here from the rail. (4) ROCKFORD PEACH won at this level on 8/30 and then again two back on 9/27, most recently with trainer and provisional driver, Geovany Hernandez in the bike. She put in a solid uncovered effort last week settling for fourth missing by 2 1/4 lengths. (2) SWEET FEAR returned immediate dividends for Edwin Quevedo in her first start for the new barn with a very impressive win in 1:56 1/5. She picks up Jacob Cutting and moves up in class but looks like she has some talent.

Race 5: TrackMaster 68.5 (Trot) (Pick 5)

(2) LANDIA beat a better field at a higher level on 8/30 as the 7:5 favorite and draws well to be able to convert a patient drive to victory in here. This lone mare in the field is somewhat void of early speed but is more than capable of making one well timed move to the lead here. I am slightly concerned why Jimmy Marohn Jr. opted off and chose #5. (5) SHOEMAKER HANOVER has been battling in the Amateur ranks for a long time and has 11 wins in 56 starts from 2023-24 and 37 career wins. Marohn Jr. chose this one and he’s capable of getting a good piece of this. (1) NOTMEITSYOU makes his ninth start in 2024 and fourth off the bench and put in two decent efforts his last two races finishing third both times at big odds. He draws the rail in a race void of early speed and could find himself closer to the lead early on than usual to be able to parlay it into a good result. (4) REAL MCCOY has been facing tougher recently here at Freehold and drops down. He beat the Amateurs wire-to-wire on 9/14 first off the claim and has seven wins from 2023-24 but it’s a bit concerning that he was tagged for $5,000 four back, which could indicate some soundness issues.

RACE 6: TrackMaster 72.5 (Trot) (Pick 4)

(1) HOLD ME CLOSER has won three times in the last six races, including two wire-to-wire wins from the rail but she has also broken stride in two of her last four. She is certainly vulnerable as the likely heavy favorite but horses #2-#7 are a combined 1-143 this year and if she stays flat, she could prove tough to beat; but hold your breath. (5) TURBOCHARGEDPETE has only one exacta finish in 13 starts this year and could be a bit of a risk coming off a break here in an Amateur event last week but his qualifier on 8/27 at Philly from the seven post was impressive finishing third in a mile of 1:56 and he could be worth a stab at decent odds. (3) PETER’S ROYALTY is 0-28 this year but has earned checks in five of his last seven and drops in class here. He was facing some decent company in Minnesota over at the Aces and had two troubled trips in his two starts here at Freehold. (8) CALL ME THEFIREMAN has hit the board in 17-27 starts in 2024 and 37-67 starts from 2023-24. He has also won 15 times in that same period and he draws the worst of it here but he could add value to exotic wagers with that 30-1 ML.

Race 7: NW $2500 L5/TrackMaster 75.5 (Trot)

(1) JESSIES OUTLAWED makes his tenth start in 2024 and fifth start off a long break and draws the rail. He was facing tougher earlier this year and has recently been in some tough miles and tough spots. There’s not much early speed in here and he should be well positioned to have a major say. (2) GRAFENBERG has won back-to-back races here at Freehold and bumps up again. He’s won 13 times in 48 races from 2023-24 and will have to step up his game a bit in here but he may be capable of doing so. (4) SHOWME SOME MUSCLE ships in from out of town and has nine wins in 39 starts in 2023-24. He comes in off a sick scratch and a break in his last start but has been facing tougher out of town. (5) ROBERT MICHAEL is a steadily improving 3-year-old who won two out of his last four races here but bumps up again. He converted a perfect pocket trip to victory last week in a sharp 1:57 mile and is certainly eligible to make some noise in here.

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Race 8: F&M NW $2500 L5/TrackMaster 75.5

(1) BADDITUDE was disappointing last week at this level at 1:5 odds finishing third with a perfect pocket trip. She draws the rail here and has been facing much tougher out of town in some super-fast miles. She has won 15 times in 62 races from 2023-24 and really should control the action here. (2) YOU BEDA ROCK ships back in from Yonkers after two even efforts. She won here on 8/30 two levels down and then stunned everyone with a wire-to-wire win at the Meadowlands at 28-1 on 9/7 at the TM 72.5 level. She’s hit the board in 5-10 races this year and is steadily improving. I keep saying (6) CORSINI A is like the Rodney Dangerfield of Freehold and gets no respect again with a 12-1 ML. Last week she came flying home from post eight missing by just a neck and finishing second at 48-1 odds. The week before she tried to wire a field at this level at 12-1 and just missed, finishing second beaten by a 1/2 length. She has beaten better and usually gives maximum effort.

Race 9: F&M TrackMaster 68.5/Optional Claiming $5,000

(1) RACING FOR RICK drop down and makes her fourth start off the bench and switches from provisional drivers the past three starts to Justin Huckabone. This 11-year-old mare has seven exacta finishes in 18 starts this year, including three wins and made good use of a rail draw two starts back for a pocket sitting second place finish in a higher class. She should be able to control the action with the inside draw. (3) RED DAWN has hit the board in four of her last five starts including a strong uncovered win two back at 20-1 at this level and now switches from Jim King Solomon to Austin Siegelman. She’s been a solid player at this level despite some bad draws and she will have a big say in the outcome here. (5) LADYZAR is probably the quickest off the car in here. Yogi Sheridan drops by for one drive on the card so I can’t imagine anything other than blasting to the lead. (2) SWEET TALKING GYPSY makes her third start off a long hiatus. Last week she made a long sustained bid and went three wide to finish second and now draws inside. She’s a bit light on the win end in 2023-24 with just three wins in 43 starts but she has 12 second place finishes.