Free: Watching the races through a haze of chalk dust

ARCADIA, Calif. – The journal is full, with notes from Santa Anita to Gulfstream Park to Kentucky and Oaklawn Park.

Festival of favorites

Is 44 percent the new normal for winning favorites? It is this winter at Santa Anita, perhaps due to horseplayers and computer programs getting smarter, but also because fields are smaller and the racing less competitive. Through Sunday, 26 days of racing, favorites have won 44 percent of the races (109 for 250) as the upward trend continues in winter at Santa Anita – 36 percent winning favorites three years ago, 39 percent the past two winters. Average field size this winter remains soft, particularly on dirt – 6.1 per race. As a point of comparison, Oaklawn Park favorites have won 34 percent this winter, with an average field size of 9.3

There’s always one

Occasionally a bomber like Bender comes along last Friday and pays $67.60, highest of the Santa Anita winter meet. He was coming off a seventh-place finish in a similar race a furlong shorter. The difference was distance.

Bender’s career stalled last year; he was sold and moved to trainer Mike Puype. Sired by Curlin, Bender is a sibling to graded stakes-winning sprinters Clearly Now and Bendable. Puype gelded Bender.

“I can’t tell you gelding him made a difference; he just needed more distance,” Puype said.

Making his second start for Puype last Friday, Bender stretched to nine furlongs on turf. He rallied from last under Kyle Frey and posted the starter-allowance upset.

Puype also popped in January with $47.40 Canoodling.

“The ROI on my horses is sitting good right now,” he noted.

The trainer is 5 for 26, with a $5.58 return per $2 win bet this meet.

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Pasadena turns into ‘amateur hour’

Considering the bad trips and questionable rides in the Pasadena Stakes last Saturday at Santa Anita, accolades for winner Sumter require moderation. Make no mistake: Sumter ran well in his first start against winners and first time going long. But, geez, some others never had a chance in the turf mile, including Epoch (10th) and Doitforandrew (8th).

Epoch made a premature move three wide into the far turn and sputtered. Doitforandrew was sandwiched at the break, which is just bad luck. His jockey exacerbated the misfortune by pressing the button at the five-eighths, uncorking a kamikaze wide move to go from ninth to fourth. Doitforandrew then emptied out.

Referring to the Pasadena, one trainer said “That’s amateur hour.”

You knew it had to happen

I always knew the day would come when a trainer born in Croatia would team with a jockey from Japan to win a Grade 3 with a runner produced by a California-bred mare who won nine stakes for a horseman currently barred from running horses at Santa Anita. Barraza, trained by Vladimir Cerin and ridden by Daisuke Fukumoto, won the San Simeon on Feb. 20 at Santa Anita. Sired by Into Mischief, Barraza was produced by Halo Dolly, who won 18 races and more than $1 million, mostly for owner-trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.

Early odds for Big Cap

Nominations to the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap on March 5 were to close this week. Express Train is the presumptive Big Cap favorite, seeking his third straight stakes win. A conservative early odds line for seven horses reported as potential Big Cap starters: Express Train, 8-5; Stilleto Boy, 3-1; Law Professor, 4-1; Spielberg, 6-1; Warrant, 8-1; American Theorem, 15-1; Soy Tapatio, 15-1.

Express Train finished second in the race a year ago. The last horse to win the Big Cap after a runner-up finish the previous year was Greinton in 1985.

Kudos to Brickyard Ride

A dawdling 27.16-second final quarter by Brickyard Ride in the one-mile Tiznow Stakes on Monday at Santa Anita hints he prefers one turn. But before knocking his come-home time, know this – Brickyard’s 46.29 opening half was the meet’s quickest for a mile on a fast track, and his 1:10.61 split was the fastest for six furlongs. Also, only two horses this meet ran faster dirt miles than Brickyard’s 1:37.77 – graded stakes winners Law Professor and Adare Manor.

Brickyard Ride will be nominated to the Grade 2, seven-furlong San Carlos on March 5, though he is not likely to run back in 12 days. On the other hand, trainer Craig Lewis noted that jockey Juan Hernandez sat chilly on Brickyard Ride through the stretch.

“He got the money and saved him for another day,” Lewis said.

Remembering Royal Delta

This date in history: Ten years ago, Feb. 25, 2012, Royal Delta finished an unspectacular second in her Grade 3 comeback at Gulfstream Park, her first start since winning the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Royal Delta subsequently misfired in the Dubai World Cup, then returned to form later in 2012 to win her second straight BC Distaff. Royal Delta retired the following season with 12 wins and $4.8 million from 22 starts. She was inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame in 2019. Saturday’s Grade 3 at Gulfstream, formerly the Sabin, is now the Royal Delta Stakes.

Stroll in park for Letruska?

Prediction for the Grade 3 Royal Delta on Saturday? I’ll got out on a limb and pick Letruska in her first start since she was cooked in a pace duel and finished 10th as the BC Distaff favorite last fall. History says Letruska has a 50 percent chance in the Royal Delta – Distaff beaten favorites are 6 for 12 next out. The wins include a 1997 walkover by Sharp Cat in the Grade 2 Bayakoa Stakes at Hollywood Park.

Judging from the probable field for the Royal Delta on Saturday, the race may be a virtual walkover for Letruska.

Beholder worthy of her honors

With the Grade 1 Beholder Mile on March 5 at Santa Anita approaching, time to check the status of the retired super mare.

Beholder’s fifth foal arrives this spring in Kentucky, and she is eligible for the Hall of Fame this year for the first time.

“I hope it’s the only time,” said Ned Toffey, general manager at Spendthrift Farm, which owns Beholder.

Beholder would seem a first-ballot cinch, having won 11 Grade 1s including three Breeders’ Cup races and one jaw-dropping Pacific Classic. In her second career as broodmare, Beholder is just getting started.

Her first two foals are with Richard Mandella at Santa Anita – Q B One, who is a 4-year-old Uncle Mo maiden gelding, and Karin With an I, an unraced Curlin 3-year-old filly. Beholder also is the dam of Teena Ella, a War Front 2-year-old filly named for the trainer’s late mother, Ella, whose nickname was Teena.

Mandella paused when he was asked to confirm the spelling of Teena.

“I’m not sure,” he said. “I just called her ‘Mom.’ ”

Teena Ella could arrive in California this spring. An unnamed Bolt d’Oro yearling filly will follow next year. Beholder’s foal by Curlin is due in late March or early April. Stay tuned.

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One way to ‘Attack’ the Rebel

Newgrange may win the Grade 2 Rebel on Saturday at Oaklawn Park, but Formulator video of his victory in the Grade 3 Southwest does not inspire confidence. Newgrange was under a drive on the far turn, spinning his wheels into the lane, then surged clear late. He may have disliked the cuppy Oaklawn surface, in which case the win was perhaps better than it looked.

Dash Attack did not run his race over the deep surface in the Southwest, finishing a distant fifth, but since then has posted two bullet works that suggest improvement. Dash Attack would be a reasonable gamble in the Rebel, even at a couple ticks less than his 8-1 morning line, even from post 11.