Free: Striking it rich thanks to Rich Strike

If horse racing is not the world’s greatest game on which to wager, try to name another game bettors can make a score despite being dead wrong about the winner. It happened in the 2022 Kentucky Derby, won by an 80-1 bomb who was tough to find even after the race.

Not many handicappers liked the colt Rich Strike prior to his $163.60 shock, so it was fun to hear about a few West Coast horseplayers who made modest Derby scores despite giving no consideration to the eventual winner. This story describes their strategies. All four stories are true.

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Back wheel bomb

One bettor loved Epicenter, which was hardly an original opinion. But he was adamant in expectation of price. The bettor believed that in any other race, any other horse with attributes similar to Epicenter would be offered at about 5-2. Epicenter was a rare low-odds overlay at 4.10-1.

The bettor took a stand against other contenders. Taiba was too inexperienced, front-runner Messier may be compromised by pace, and closers Zandon and Mo Donegal required everything to go their way. The bettor concluded Epicenter was a standout, and he wagered accordingly.

But things happen. Craziness happens. Even if the bettor was right about Epicenter and the vulnerability of others, something unforeseen could prevent Epicenter from winning. In addition to a $400 win wager, the bettor took out an insurance policy and back-wheeled Epicenter in a $2 exacta. The $38 play – all with 3 – returned $4,101.20.

All in on chaos theory

Another bettor went in a different direction. He went for the trifecta. And just like the bettor who hit the exacta, the Derby trifecta bettor never considered Rich Strike. The bettor loved Epicenter, and he liked three others.

His likes were Zandon, Messier, Taiba and a “horse with no name” – chaos. Stuff happens in the Derby. If the trifecta bettor was right, Epicenter would hit the board along with Messier, Zandon or Taiba, he might also be right about the possibility of chaos.

Enter the “all.” The trifecta bettor keyed Epicenter in the three trifecta spots; he used Zandon, Messier, and Taiba as secondary keys; and he used “all” to complete the bet. His play required six tickets. At the 50-cent minimum, each cost $27. The trifecta would win if Epicenter (3) hit the board, along with either Messier (6), Zandon (10), or Taiba (12).

Trifecta ticket structure:

3 / 6,10,12 / all

3 / all / 6,10,12

6,10,12 / 3 /all

all / 3 / 6,10,12

6,10,12 / all / 3

all / 6,10,12 / 3

Cost of the trifecta play – $162. Epicenter fired. Zandon ran well. But the two-three finishers were no match late for Rich Strike. The 50-cent trifecta returned $7,435.35.

Investing for the future

Recent Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools have not been kind to bettors who embrace turmoil. The pools include 23 individual horses and “all others,” No. 24. In recent pools, most eventual Derby winners were individually listed. Only a few winners landed in all others. The highest all-others payoff under the current Derby points system was $7.60.

In the first three pools this year, No. 24 closed at such low odds (7-10, 1.90-1, 2-1), the potential reward was not worth it for one particular bettor whose future-wager strategy typically keys all others.

But in KDFW Pool 4, the No. 24 odds drifted. And it had potential. The bettor considered the possibility trainer Bob Baffert would somehow have a Derby runner, though none was listed due to the Churchill Downs ban. Another possibility was a Baffert runner would move to another trainer, which ultimately did occur. Or perhaps an unidentified runner would emerge. In Pool 4, No. 24 all others closed at 4.20-1. Fair enough.

KDFW Pool 5 closed prior to the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, and Blue Grass on April 9. If one of those races was won by a horse not listed individually, the bettor figured the winner’s odds would be relatively low in the Kentucky Derby. The bettor needed chaos in at least one of the races. The No. 24 all others closed at 18.50-1.

When the Santa Anita Derby was won by non-listed Taiba, the bettor was in a good position. Win or lose, he had beaten the odds with No. 24.

The Pool 4 bet ($200 at 4.20-1) would pay with a win by any of eight horses, including 5.80-1 Taiba or 7.10-1 Messier. The Pool 5 bet ($100 at 18.50-1) would pay with a win by any of four horses, including Taiba.

Rich Strike? Never heard of him. He was all-others anonymity. The bettor’s play did not look good when Epicenter and Zandon briefly kicked away from the field. Then from out of nowhere, well, you saw what happened. Bets totaling $300 returned $2,990.

The old ‘box ‘em all’ strategy

Last was another nice little score based on a curious betting strategy that also needed an unpredictable outcome. Like the other wins chronicled here, the strategy called for a random result.

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Some players, including this reporter, are conflicted regarding hitting the “all” button due to its reliance on luck. Every bettor needs a little luck, but “all” seems to require dumb luck. On the other hand, perhaps recognition of situations that produce chaos is a skill. By luck or finesse, the wager made by a Las Vegas bettor took it to an extreme.

The play was preposterous. It’s not recommended. But in the 2022 Kentucky Derby, it was a winning move. The bettor “bought” the $1 exacta – all with all, which was 380 possible combinations. He was guaranteed to hit. His $380 exacta play returned $2,050.60