Free: Santa Anita preview for Sunday, April 14, 2019

Small fields = winning favorites?

A quirk will be tested Sunday at Santa Anita. Five-horse fields are offered in five of the eight races. Another chalk-fest? Since racing resumed March 29, favorites are undefeated (7-for-7) in fields with five starters or less.

Perhaps small fields produce a higher percentage of winning favorites anyway, but the recent trend is severe compared to the early part of the meet. From Dec. 26 through March 3, favorites won 41 percent of races with five starters or less. Races with six starters or more, favorites won 34 percent.

What will happen Sunday? We’re about to find out.

Race 1 – Six entered! Hit the Seam (2) is favored, and shucks, it’s only his 14th attempt to win a maiden race. First-time route Preaching Trainer (5) has trained very well according to workout analyst Andy Harrington.

Race 2 – The first of five straight races with five entrants. Despite a nine-month layoff, Desert General (3) is the program favorite. No thanks. I Can Do This (1) finished an unlucky second to Bellerin (4) last out. With a clean trip, expect the tables will turn.

Race 3 – First-time turf Victory Element (5) finished in the money all four starts; he is the pick in this five-furlong maiden race. Overdue (2) worked exceptionally well since raced, according to Harrington.

Race 4 – Denman’s Call (3) is a borderline standout in this $25k claiming sprint. Expect he will be pounded below his 8-5 program odds.

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Race 5 – Love and Peace (3) is working like a beast for her first start since late January. She could have her hands full with graded stakes-placed comebacker Causeforcommotion (2).

Race 6 – Beach View (5) “should” win the G3 Tokyo City as the favorite. A mile and a half on dirt is his deal. Campaign (1) ran well eight days ago, fourth in the Big ’Cap.

Race 7 – Seven entered this maiden-50 turf mile, Field Bet (7) will try to wire the field.

Race 8 – The final race of the week, 11 runners, is the only race this handicapper plans to bet. The debut victory by Dialed Up (10) was more impressive than the 73 Beyer. Listed at 10-1, Dialed Up is worth backing at half that price. The only knock is wheeling back on short notice, two weeks.

First post: Sunday, 1 p.m. PT.