Free: Santa Anita pick three play for Saturday, March 21

Overlay options are minimal Saturday at Santa Anita – small fields early followed by a low odds “standout” late. But if FINNEGANS WAKE (8) is upset in race 8, the San Luis Rey Stakes, the pick three payoff will balloon.

p>:: Build your pick three ticket with DRF TicketMaker | DRF TicketMaker (Mobile)

A pick three wager (two tickets, $25 total) on races 7-9 is the suggested play. The good news is the ticket will be “live” after the first leg, regardless of the winner. The bad news is if Finnegans Wake wins the San Luis Rey, the pick three is likely to pay peanuts.

Cost of the first ticket is $22; the second ticket is $3. If a favorite wins the first leg, the pick three might still pay well if an improving allowance horse posts an upset the San Luis Rey. It’s time to take a look.

Race 7

The “all” button is a cop-out. However, there are exceptions, including this first-level allowance for filly-and-mare sprinters. The favorites all have knocks.

IMWITHTHEBLONDE (7) has a series of fast works for her comeback. But she has not started since July 2013. CRUSHED VELVET (9) has a series of fast works. She has not started since January 2014. COURAGEOUS CALL (2) is the “now” filly, but neither of her recent starts (Beyers in low 80s) suggests she holds an advantage.

With potential knocks on the three favorites, chaos could ensue. There are 11 entered; the first ticket will use “all.” The second ticket will use the three favorites, and then insist on an upset in the San Luis Rey.

Race 8

FINNEGANS WAKE (8) enters the Grade 2 San Luis on a three-race graded stakes win streak. He can stay 1 1/2 miles; he won twice this winter on the Santa Anita turf at shorter distances. The only real knock is price. Finnegans Wake is 6-5.

ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR (9) is the upset candidate, based on an impressive recent second-level allowance win over next-out winner Talco. Although the hike from allowance to Grade 2 is steep, class barriers on turf are less imposing as they once were on the West Coast. Ashleyluvssugar should get a good trip behind the speed. He will get first run. Upset at 9-2? Well, maybe.

Race 9

CAPTAIN CARCHY (14) finished second in back-to-back at the same seven-furlong distance, same maiden-30 level. He ran “fast” last time, the 66 Beyer he earned would probably be good enough. Captain Carchy is favored. He is a single.

The play ($1 pick three, races 7-9)

First ticket

Race 7, first leg: “All 11”
Race 8, second leg: 8, 9 (Finnegans Wake, Ashleyluvssugar)

Race 9, third leg: 14 (Captain Carchy)

Cost = $22

The play

Second ticket

Race 7, first leg: 2, 7, 9 (Courageous Call, Imwiththeblonde, Crushed Velvet)

Race 8, second leg: 9 (Ashleyluvssugar)

Race 9, third leg: 14 (Captain Carchy)

Cost = $3